Xavier (2018)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, on 2 November 2018. The system became Tropical Storm Xavier early on 3 November and moved generally northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Mexico. Xavier strengthened gradually and reached its peak on 4 November about 115 nautical miles southwest of Manzanillo. After turning northward and approaching the coast late on 4–5 November, increasing wind shear and dry air caused the storm to weaken, become post-tropical by 6 November, and dissipate as a trough by 9 November well west-southwest of Socorro Island.

Xavier did not make any confirmed landfalls on the Mexican mainland. Mexican authorities issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula on 4 November; that warning was discontinued on the evening of 5 November. The storm’s closest approach to shore was about 80 nautical miles southwest of Manzanillo around 0000 UTC 5 November, when it was still a tropical storm.

The storm’s peak intensity was 55 knots (about 63 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 995 millibars, reached at 1200 UTC 4 November. Xavier remained a tropical storm throughout its peak and never reached hurricane strength.

Storm surge impacts were limited; there were no reports of specific coastal inundation heights in the NHC report. Rainfall totals were modest along the southwestern Mexican coast, mainly in the states of Michoacán, Jalisco, and Colima. Notable totals included 2.20 inches (56 mm) at Zicuirán, Michoacán; 1.77 inches (45 mm) at Los Olivas, Michoacán; and 1.93 inches (49 mm) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco.

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Xavier. Impacts were confined to localized heavy rain and near-coast tropical-storm-force winds reported by two ships and suggested by scatterometer data offshore; no tropical-storm-force winds were reported on the affected stretch of coastline.

Noteworthy points: Xavier’s formation was anticipated only a few days in advance, with a high chance assigned about 36 hours before development. Official track forecast errors for Xavier were larger than recent averages—many guidance models underforecast how far north and east the storm would move near the coast—while intensity forecasts performed about as well as typical for a weak tropical storm.