Vance (2014)

A low pressure area south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gradually organized and became a tropical depression about 400 nautical miles south of Acapulco on 30 October 2014. It strengthened to Tropical Storm Vance later that day, drifted slowly at first, then accelerated west-northwestward. Vance underwent a period of rapid intensification beginning 2 November, became a hurricane that day, reached peak strength on 3 November, turned northward then northeastward, and rapidly weakened under strong wind shear. The system degenerated into a trough and dissipated over the Mexican states of southeastern Sinaloa and Nayarit on 5 November.

Vance did not make a confirmed landfall as a tropical cyclone. Operationally it was maintained as a tropical depression through its final approach, but a post-storm review indicates Vance most likely lost its closed circulation before moving onshore near the Islas Marias area on 5 November. No tropical-storm-force winds were reported onshore in Mexico, and the tropical storm watch issued from Mazatlán to Topolobampo on 4 November was discontinued on 5 November.

The hurricane’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 95 knots (110 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 964 mb at 1800 UTC on 3 November, making Vance a Category 2 hurricane at peak. Those values are the basis for the best-track peak intensity and are unusually strong for an eastern Pacific storm in November; Vance is tied with Hurricane Sergio (2006) as the second-strongest November hurricane on record in that basin.

Storm surge reports were minimal because Vance weakened before landfall; no specific surge heights were recorded in the report. Rainfall and coastal flooding impacts were limited in the observations — the cyclone’s remaining thunderstorm activity moved ashore near southeastern Sinaloa and Nayarit as a weakening trough, but the report lists no notable rainfall totals at named cities or counties and no surge measurements of consequence.

There were no reported deaths, injuries, or damage attributable to Vance. The most significant impacts were avoided because the cyclone weakened rapidly before reaching the coast. Noteworthy aspects include Vance’s rare late-season intensity and its rapid intensification followed by a very rapid collapse under strong wind shear. NHC track forecasts were generally skillful (better than many models), while genesis occurred about two days later than initially forecast.