Paul (2018)

A tropical depression formed from an African easterly wave that crossed Central America and developed a well-defined low on 7–8 September 2018 about 590 nautical miles south‑southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The system became Tropical Storm Paul at 0000 UTC 9 September and tracked generally northwestward, then westward as it weakened. Paul lost tropical-storm strength and became a remnant low by 0000 UTC 12 September, and its circulation dissipated by 0000 UTC 15 September.

Paul did not make any landfalls. The cyclone remained well offshore of Mexico as it moved across the central eastern North Pacific between 8 and 11 September and then continued westward as a remnant low before dissipating.

The storm’s peak intensity was estimated at 40 knots (about 46 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 1002 millibars around 1800 UTC 9 September. At its peak Paul was a weak tropical storm (below hurricane strength).

There were no coastal storm surge reports or documented storm surge heights associated with Paul. Rainfall totals directly attributable to Paul were not reported in the NHC report for populated locations; there were no ship or land observations of tropical‑storm‑force winds recorded.

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Tropical Storm Paul. Regions most affected were limited to the open ocean; no impacts on Mexican coastal communities were reported in the NHC record.

Noteworthy items: Paul’s formation was well anticipated in National Hurricane Center outlooks, with the potential low first mentioned 7 days before genesis. NHC track forecasts were notably accurate (errors below recent 5‑year averages), while early intensity forecasts initially overestimated strengthening before later correctly predicting little additional intensification.