Paine (2016)

A compact area of low pressure formed in the eastern North Pacific from a series of tropical waves and became a tropical depression at 0000 UTC on 18 September 2016 about 325 nautical miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The system strengthened to a tropical storm six hours later and moved generally northwestward then northward around a subtropical ridge. Paine rapidly intensified into a hurricane early on 19 September and reached peak strength that evening; it weakened quickly while moving into much colder water and became a post-tropical low by 1800 UTC 20 September, eventually degenerating into a trough offshore of Baja California by 21 September.

Paine did not make any landfalls. Tropical storm watches and warnings were issued for parts of the Baja California coast (from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintín) on 19–20 September, but the cyclone weakened and the watches/warnings were discontinued before any direct landfall occurred.

Paine’s maximum sustained winds were 80 knots (about 92 mph) at peak, with a minimum central pressure estimated at 979 mb. At peak intensity on 19 September it was a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

Storm surge impacts were not reported in association with Paine, and there were no reports of hurricane- or tropical-storm-force winds observed from ships. Moisture from Paine’s outer circulation produced beneficial rainfall across parts of the southwestern United States; for example, the San Diego area saw measurable rain that caused a brief rain delay for the San Diego Padres on 20 September. The report did not list specific storm-surge measurements or station rainfall totals tied directly to Paine.

There were no reported deaths or damage directly attributed to Paine. The greatest effects were limited to increased moisture and light to moderate rain in southwestern U.S. locations and precautionary watches and warnings for Baja California that were ended as the storm weakened offshore.

Notable points: Paine underwent very rapid intensification soon after forming and then rapidly weakened as it moved over a strong sea-surface temperature gradient. NHC genesis forecasts performed very well, with formation highlighted days in advance, but the rapid intensification and the magnitude and timing of peak intensity were not well forecast by models, leading to larger-than-normal intensity forecast errors.