Raymond (2013)

A well-defined disturbance that crossed Central America moved into the eastern Pacific and organized into a tropical depression on 0000 UTC 20 October 2013 about 190 nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The system became Tropical Storm Raymond six hours later and rapidly intensified into a major hurricane by 21 October while located roughly 80 n mi south-southwest of Zihuatanejo. Raymond drifted erratically and stalled off the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days, weakened while moving westward, re-strengthened into a hurricane again south of the southern tip of Baja California late on 27–28 October, then turned northwest and northward, weakened to a remnant low by 1200 UTC 30 October, and dissipated after 0000 UTC 1 November.

Raymond did not make any direct hurricane landfalls on the Mexican coast. Tropical storm watches and warnings were issued for portions of Guerrero and neighboring coastal areas (Acapulco to Lázaro Cárdenas and later Tecpán de Galeana to Lázaro Cárdenas), and warnings were in effect during 20–23 October while Raymond remained offshore. Although tropical-storm-force winds likely affected a small portion of the Guerrero coast on 21–22 October, there were no confirmed reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land and no hurricane-force winds at the coast.

Raymond’s best track peak intensity was 110 kt (about 125 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 951 mb at 1800 UTC 21 October, corresponding to a Category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Aircraft reconnaissance about a day later measured lower winds, and subsequent estimates place the storm near 75 kt during the reconnaissance, but the official peak remains 110 kt and 951 mb on 21 October.

The biggest impacts were from heavy rain rather than storm surge or extreme winds. Rainfall totals in Guerrero were substantial: Ixtapa–Zihuatanejo reported the highest available 3-day total of 14.20 inches (20–22 October); El Veladero recorded 12.02 inches over five days; and two stations in Acapulco measured about 10.4 inches over five days. Coastal observations included a gust to 35 kt at Puerto Vicente on 22 October. The report does not list measured storm surge heights affecting specific coastal locations.

No deaths were reported in association with Raymond. Hundreds of people were evacuated in Guerrero, especially in areas still recovering from severe flooding and landslides caused by Tropical Storm Manuel a month earlier. Damage from Raymond was limited compared with Manuel, with reports noting some flooding in Acapulco but no widespread, severe destruction attributed directly to Raymond.

Noteworthy aspects include Raymond’s very rapid initial intensification from a 30-kt depression to a 110-kt hurricane in about 42 hours, its prolonged stall and upwelling of colder water that contributed to rapid weakening, and a second, smaller re-intensification late in its life well offshore. Forecasters had relatively low lead time predicting its formation, but official track forecasts were generally skillful and better than many models; intensity forecasts had larger errors than recent averages except at short lead times, yet forecasters did correctly capture the overall intensification trend during the first rapid strengthening episode.