Paul (2006)

A tropical depression formed around 0600 UTC on 21 October 2006 about 230 nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, after a tropical wave crossed Central America. The system became Tropical Storm Paul six hours later, moved generally northwestward, then turned north as it weakened and accelerated. Paul rapidly intensified between 1800 UTC 22 October and 1200 UTC 23 October, reaching hurricane strength, then began weakening as it encountered stronger upper-level winds and made a northeastward acceleration before moving toward mainland Mexico. The cyclone dissipated inland on 26 October about 50 n mi northwest of Culiacán near La Bahía de Santa María.

Paul passed just west of Socorro Island early on 24 October and moved about 40 n mi south of Cabo San Lucas early on 25 October as a weakening system. It made landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico near the southern end of Isla Altamura around 0400 UTC on 26 October as a tropical depression (best-track landfall intensity 25 kt).

The storm’s maximum intensity was estimated at 90 kt (about 103 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 970 mb at 1200 UTC on 23 October. At peak intensity Paul was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

Paul produced notable surf and heavy rainfall. Southern Baja California saw large waves and high surf that contributed to two deaths (an American tourist swept out to sea and a fisherman swept off rocks). In the state of Sinaloa heavy rains caused widespread flooding; Villa Juárez experienced about three feet of floodwater when a canal overflowed, and media reports indicated about 5,000 homes were damaged and 20,000 people were displaced. A tropical storm watch was issued for Mazatlán to Altata and warnings were in place for parts of southern Baja and the mainland coast prior to landfall.

Four deaths in Mexico were directly attributed to Paul: two in Baja California from high surf and two in the municipality of Navolato, Sinaloa, where a truck was swept away by a swollen river. The most severe impacts were flood damage and displacement in Sinaloa; damage on Baja was mainly related to surf. Forecasts had difficulty with Paul’s rapid intensification and its later sudden weakening and deceleration, leading to larger-than-average track and short-term intensity errors in some forecast periods.