Pamela (2021)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave in the eastern Pacific at 0600 UTC on 10 October 2021 about 215 nautical miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. It strengthened to a tropical storm within six hours and moved generally northwestward. Pamela intensified to a hurricane by 0600 UTC 12 October, weakened later that day, then re-intensified to hurricane strength early on 13 October as it turned northeastward toward the Mexican coast. The cyclone made landfall in west‑central mainland Mexico on 13 October and dissipated over northern Mexico shortly before 0000 UTC on 14 October.

Pamela made landfall around 1230 UTC 13 October in a rural area between Mazatlán and Bahía Tempehuaya in the state of Sinaloa (best track landfall point about 23.7°N, 106.7°W). Observations near the coast were limited; reported sustained winds at Mazatlán International Airport were 27 kt with a gust to 40 kt shortly after landfall, and Isla María Madre reported a gust to 51 kt earlier that day.

The hurricane reached a peak intensity of 65 knots (75 mph) twice during its life, with an estimated minimum central pressure near 987–989 mb at peak. That peak corresponds to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir‑Simpson scale.

No official storm surge heights were recorded, but media and storm‑chaser reports described battering waves and surf-related coastal damage along the Sinaloa coastline. Rainfall in Mexico was widespread: an estimated 4–8 inches across Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit on 13 October, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. Pamela’s remnants contributed heavy rain in the south‑central United States on 13–14 October; Gonzales, Texas reported the highest U.S. total of 9.9 inches.

There were no direct fatalities reported in Mexico. Pamela produced flooding, uprooted trees, and moderate wind damage in Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit; businesses and waterfront areas in Mazatlán suffered damage and streets were flooded. In Texas, two indirect deaths occurred when two vehicles went through flood waters and fell into Martinez Creek outside San Antonio; several people were rescued from the same vehicles.

Notable points: forecasts predicted earlier and stronger intensification than occurred—dry mid‑level air and shear limited Pamela’s strengthening—so official intensity forecasts had substantial high bias and larger-than-normal errors. Track forecasts were generally reasonable at short lead times but tended to be too slow in anticipating Pamela’s acceleration near landfall.