Paul (2012)

A tropical cyclone developed from a tropical wave and became a tropical depression at 1200 UTC on 13 October 2012 about 560 nautical miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It strengthened to a tropical storm later that day and moved generally westward before turning northward on 15 October as it encountered a break in the subtropical ridge. Paul rapidly intensified on 15 October near Clarión Island, moved north-northeastward past Clarión, then weakened rapidly on 16 October as it approached the southern Baja California peninsula. It lost deep convection and became post-tropical on 17 October, grazed the Baja coast, and dissipated just after 0000 UTC 18 October about 60 n mi northwest of Punta Eugenia.

Paul made one reported landfall as a post-tropical cyclone on 17 October around 1600 UTC at Bahía Asunción, Baja California Sur, with estimated winds of 35 kt (about 40 mph). Its center moved parallel to the west coast of Baja California Sur for roughly a day and the circulation passed by Isla Cedros before dissipating.

The storm’s maximum intensity reached 105 kt (121 mph) around 1800 UTC 15 October, with a minimum central pressure of 959 mb, making Paul a Category 3 hurricane at peak intensity. Observational blends used subjective and objective satellite estimates to determine that peak.

Storm surge and rainfall were greatest in Baja California Sur. Reported storm tide/surge and rainfall totals include: Puerto Cortés recorded 6.03 inches (153.2 mm) of rain; Ciudad Constitución 5.11 in (129.8 mm); Isla Clarión about 1.88 in; Topolobampo in Sinaloa about 2.06 in. Selected tide and surge observations were small at most coastal stations; reported storm tide or surge values were modest in the available station records (for example, Isla Clarión had an indicated storm tide of about 1.88 ft).

Media and government reports indicated Paul affected nearly 16,000 people and damaged roughly 1,000 homes, with the city of Loreto among the hardest hit due to freshwater flooding that cut roads and damaged water infrastructure. Nearly 500 families in Comondú and about 300 people in Mulegé reported home damage. About 30% of electricity customers in Baja California Sur lost power. La Paz reported road damage estimated at 200 million pesos (about 15.5 million USD). There were no reported fatalities associated with Paul.

Notable aspects included Paul’s rapid intensification near Clarión Island and an unusually fast north-northeastward acceleration toward Baja California Sur that many models did not fully capture; the GFS model had some of the lowest track errors because it better forecast that acceleration. Forecasting intensity was challenging because of the rapid strengthening followed by rapid weakening, which led to larger-than-normal intensity errors in official forecasts.