Lorena (2019)

A tropical wave that crossed Central America organized into Tropical Storm Lorena at 0600 UTC on 17 September 2019 about 290 nautical miles southeast of Acapulco. Lorena moved northwest toward southwestern Mexico, briefly became a hurricane just before first landfall on 19 September, weakened over land, then moved back over the Gulf of California where it re-intensified to its peak on 20 September. The storm tracked north-northwest along the eastern side of the Baja California peninsula, weakened over the peninsula’s high terrain, and degenerated into a broad low after reaching mainland Mexico north of Guaymas on 22 September.

Lorena made its first landfall near Chamela–Cuixmala, Jalisco around 0600 UTC on 19 September with sustained winds of about 65 knots (75 mph). Its second landfall occurred near the town of La Ventana, Baja California Sur at 0300 UTC on 21 September with sustained winds near 70 knots (80 mph). After the second landfall the system weakened to a tropical storm and then to a depression before dissipating over mainland Mexico.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 75 knots (about 86 mph or 139 km/h) with an estimated minimum central pressure of 986 mb at 1800 UTC on 20 September, making Lorena a Category 1 hurricane at peak intensity. Earlier on 19 September it also reached hurricane strength (about 70 knots) just before the Jalisco landfall.

Storm surge and heavy rainfall affected coastal areas along its path. The heaviest reported rainfall was 343 mm (13.5 inches) at Chamela–Cuixmala, Jalisco. Wind measurements near landfalls included sustained winds of 49 kt with a gust to 78 kt at the Chamela–Cuixmala station and sustained winds of 54 kt with gusts to 71 kt reported at La Ventana. Specific storm-surge heights are not listed in the observations, but large waves and coastal flooding were reported along the Los Cabos boardwalk and in coastal communities.

Damage was limited by Lorena’s relatively small size, but there was notable agricultural and local property damage: significant loss to the banana crop around Tomatlán, Jalisco, and damage in La Ventana near La Paz, Baja California Sur. About 200 people were evacuated in Jalisco, and there were flood rescues in towns such as Agua Caliente and Chamela. Media reports indicate one death when a man was swept out to sea in Los Cabos while trying to rescue his son; the son survived.

Forecast notes: the storm’s long-range formation was anticipated, but short-range genesis forecasts were later than ideal. Official track forecasts had larger-than-average errors because a ridge north of Mexico was weaker than expected and allowed Lorena to move along the peninsula rather than be steered west; the ECMWF model had lower track errors than the official forecasts. Intensity forecasts were comparatively reasonable for several periods, aided by aircraft and satellite observations.