Kiko (2007)

A broad area of low pressure formed from a tropical wave in the eastern North Pacific and organized into a tropical depression on October 15, 2007, roughly 240–350 nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico (near Acapulco and Manzanillo). The system drifted slowly southward, then turned east-northeast and later northward and northwestward as steering currents changed. It spent its life well offshore, slowly strengthening and weakening, then degenerated into a remnant low on October 24 and dissipated by October 27.

Kiko never made landfall. Forecasts and watches briefly threatened the southwestern Mexican coast (including areas from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo and later Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes), but warnings were discontinued as the storm turned away from shore and weakened on October 19–21.

The storm’s maximum intensity occurred at 1800 UTC on October 20, when Kiko reached peak sustained winds of 60 knots (about 70 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 991 mb. At its peak it was a strong tropical storm (below hurricane strength) and maintained that peak for roughly 12 hours before gradual weakening.

Observed storm surge and rainfall reports associated with Kiko were minimal in the official record. No ships or land stations reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and the report contains no specific storm surge heights or large rainfall totals for named cities or counties along the Mexican coast.

There were no reports of damage or casualties—no direct or indirect deaths were recorded in association with Kiko. The regions most threatened were the southwestern coastal areas of Mexico (for example, Zihuatanejo, Manzanillo, and Cabo Corrientes), but impacts did not materialize.

Noteworthy items: the system’s development was anticipated in the Tropical Weather Outlook several days in advance, giving about a 31-hour lead between explicit mention of possible formation and actual genesis. NHC track and intensity forecasts performed about as well as or better than typical guidance for this storm; track errors early on were somewhat larger than average but smaller than many individual model errors, and intensity forecast errors were near or below long-term averages.