Madeline (2016)

A compact area of disturbed weather south of Mexico gradually organized into a tropical depression on 26 August 2016 about 1,125 nautical miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm Madeline within six hours, crossed into the central Pacific on 28 August, became a hurricane on 29 August, and rapidly intensified to reach major hurricane strength. Madeline tracked generally northwestward then turned southwestward and west-southwestward as it weakened, becoming a post-tropical low on 2 September and dissipating early on 3 September about 465 nmi southwest of Lihue, Kauai.

Madeline did not make a direct landfall on the main Hawaiian Islands. The closest approach to the Big Island occurred on 31 August and 1 September, when the center passed roughly 105–140 nautical miles southeast to south-southwest of Hilo and South Point, respectively. Warnings were issued (hurricane and tropical-storm warnings and watches) for the Big Island and parts of Maui County as the threat evolved, but the center remained well offshore as the cyclone weakened.

The storm’s peak intensity was estimated at 115 kt (132 mph) with a minimum central pressure of about 950 mb at 0600 UTC 30 August, making Madeline a Category 4 hurricane at its strongest. Aircraft reconnaissance measured flight-level winds of about 100 kt and an SFMR-derived surface wind as high as 115 kt on 30 August; a dropwindsonde measured a pressure of 974 mb (adjusted to an estimated 973 mb at the surface) later that day during weakening.

Madeline generated large swell and heavy rainfall across parts of the Hawaiian Islands. Surf up to 25 feet occurred along east-facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, with the highest surf along the eastern islands. Rainfall totals on the Big Island included reports such as 9.11 inches at Glenwood and 8.76 inches at Kulani National Wildlife Refuge; Hilo International Airport recorded 4.94 inches. Numerous other locations on the Big Island recorded multiple inches of rain, and several stream and gage sites reported totals in the 5–11 inch range.

There were no reported deaths or significant injuries associated with Madeline. Impacts were limited to strong surf, gusty winds, localized power outages, and minor flooding on parts of the Big Island; no significant structural damage was reported. Forecasters noted that the storm’s rapid intensification near 29–30 August was not well predicted by many models, leading to larger-than-normal intensity forecast errors at the 72-hour period, although track forecasts performed reasonably well overall.