Kevin (2015)

A tropical cyclone formed from a tropical wave well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low developed into a tropical depression on 31 August 2015 about 650 nautical miles south of Baja California Sur, became Tropical Storm Kevin on 1 September, turned northward around 3 September, and weakened as vertical wind shear increased before losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low on 5 September about 240 n mi west of the southern tip of Baja California. The remnant low drifted northwest and dissipated early on 6 September.

Kevin did not make landfall. It remained over the eastern North Pacific and recurved well offshore of the Baja California peninsula during its lifetime, so no coastal watches or warnings were issued for Mexico or the United States.

The maximum sustained wind estimate for Kevin was 50 knots (about 58 mph) at 1800 UTC on 3 September, with a minimum central pressure of 998 mb. At its peak it was a moderate tropical storm, below hurricane strength.

There were no reports of storm surge or rainfall impacts associated with Kevin in the official record, and no specific surge heights or rainfall totals were reported at cities or counties in the NHC post-storm data.

No damage or casualties were reported in connection with Kevin. The storm remained far enough offshore that it produced no known direct or indirect fatalities and no reported destruction.

Forecasting and analysis notes: NHC forecasts reasonably anticipated Kevin’s formation and correctly predicted only modest strengthening because environmental conditions were only marginally favorable. Official track forecast errors were larger than recent averages through 48 hours due to an unexpected westward shift early on 3 September, but intensity forecasts performed better than typical, correctly predicting limited intensification.