Manuel (2013)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave near 1200 UTC on 13 September 2013 about 275 nautical miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. It strengthened to Tropical Storm Manuel later that day and moved generally northwestward, turning briefly north-northeast before resuming a northwestward track. Manuel first weakened over the mountainous Pacific coast after 15 September, its surface circulation dissipated on 16 September, then the remnants moved into the southern Gulf of California, reformed into a tropical cyclone on 17 September, rapidly intensified on 18–19 September, and dissipated over the Sierra Madre Occidental late on 19 September.

Manuel made two landfalls in Mexico. The first occurred near Pichilinguillo, Michoacán, around 1200 UTC 15 September while the system was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 60 kt (about 70 mph). After redeveloping in the Gulf of California, the second landfall was just west of Culiacán, Sinaloa, around 1200 UTC 19 September when Manuel was at its peak intensity.

The storm’s peak intensity was estimated at 65 kt (75 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 983 mb (the best-track lists 984 mb at peak times). At peak strength Manuel was a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale and maintained that intensity for about 12 hours before the second landfall and rapid weakening inland.

Manuel produced very large rainfall totals and local storm surge and coastal flooding. Rainfall accumulations (12–20 September) exceeded 10 inches in many locations; the highest reported total in the NHC report was 43.60 inches near San Isidro/Protección Civil in Guerrero, and heavy totals were recorded in Acapulco (17.80 in), La Villita in Michoacán (22.11 in), and Culiacán in Sinaloa (18.52 in). Coastal surge and high seas caused destructive flooding near landfall areas, and ship and buoy reports recorded tropical-storm-force winds offshore; specific storm-surge heights at individual tide stations were not listed in the NHC tables, but flooding and coastal inundation were repeatedly reported along the Pacific coast where Manuel tracked.

Manuel caused widespread flooding and deadly mudslides across western and southwestern Mexico. Mexican authorities attributed 123 deaths to Manuel, of which at least 104 were classified as direct deaths; the state of Guerrero reported at least 97 direct fatalities, including a mudslide that destroyed much of the village of La Pintada. Large economic losses were reported: insured losses were estimated between $200 million and $685 million (US), and total economic impact was estimated near $4.2 billion (US), with Guerrero among the hardest hit.

Notable aspects of Manuel included its rare behavior of making an initial landfall, degenerating over land, then reemerging over water and re-intensifying into a hurricane in the Gulf of California — the first eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone since records began in 1949 known to do so. Forecasting the initial genesis and the second redevelopment proved challenging; genesis probabilities and some early track and intensity forecasts underestimated the system’s development and its rapid intensification prior to the second landfall.