Kay (2016)

A broad area of disturbed weather from an African easterly wave moved into the eastern Pacific in mid‑August and gradually organized. The system became a tropical depression at 1200 UTC 18 August 2016 about 355 nautical miles south‑southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, then strengthened to Tropical Storm Kay by 0600 UTC 19 August. Kay moved generally northwestward and west‑northwestward, passed near Socorro Island on 19 August, reached its peak on 21 August about 300 nautical miles west‑southwest of southern Baja, and weakened to a remnant low on 22–23 August as it moved over cooler waters and drier air. The remnant low continued west‑northwestward and dissipated about 585 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja by 12 UTC 26 August.

Kay did not make any landfalls on the Mexican mainland or Baja California. Its center passed roughly 25 nautical miles southwest of Socorro Island late on 19 August, but no tropical cyclone landfalls were recorded and no coastal watches or warnings were issued.

The maximum sustained winds for Kay were estimated at 45 knots (about 52 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb, reached at 1800 UTC 21 August. That intensity corresponds to a moderate tropical storm but below hurricane strength.

Observed storm surge and heavy rainfall reports associated with Kay were minimal. An automated Mexican Navy station on Socorro Island recorded a peak wind gust of 29 kt (about 33 mph) but no sustained tropical‑storm‑force winds, and there were no ship reports of tropical‑force winds. The report does not list any significant storm surge measurements or large rainfall totals at named cities or counties.

There were no reports of damage or casualties—no deaths, direct or indirect—attributed to Kay. The regions closest to the cyclone’s track, including Socorro Island, experienced only light impacts based on available observations.

Noteworthy points: Kay’s formation was poorly forecast in advance, with only a high chance of development given at the time genesis occurred. Forecast track errors were smaller than recent 5‑year means through 48 hours but larger at longer ranges; intensity forecasts performed better than many guidance models, correctly anticipating limited strengthening.