Kevin (2021)

A tropical wave that moved from the Atlantic across Central America developed into Tropical Depression Eleven-E on 1200 UTC 7 August 2021 about 200 nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Kevin later that day and moved generally west‑northwestward well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Kevin intensified quickly on 7–8 August, reached its peak on 1200 UTC 8 August, then began a steady weakening trend as wind shear increased. The system weakened to a tropical depression by 0600 UTC 12 August, became a remnant low 6 hours later, and finally dissipated on 15 August about 630 nmi west of northern Baja California.

Kevin did not make landfall on the Mexican mainland. The storm remained over open water and passed near the Mexican islands of Socorro and Clarion; it produced observed gusts on those islands but did not directly strike populated coastal areas or require coastal watches or warnings.

The maximum intensity was estimated at 55 kt (about 63 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb at 1200 UTC 8 August. That peak corresponds to a moderate tropical storm; Kevin never reached hurricane strength.

Storm surge impacts are not reported for the Mexican coast because Kevin stayed offshore. Rainfall totals associated with Kevin are not reported as notable in the report; most impacts and notable measurements were at sea or on the nearby islands. Observed wind gusts included 30 kt gusts on Socorro Island on 9 August and a peak gust of 37 kt on Clarion Island at 0800 UTC 10 August. Several ships reported tropical‑storm‑force winds, with one ship reporting 48 kt on 9 August.

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Kevin. The regions closest to the storm—offshore southwestern Mexico and the islands of Socorro and Clarion—recorded only gusty winds and no reported injuries or property damage.

Noteworthy items from the analysis: Kevin’s formation was only moderately anticipated in short‑term forecasts, with limited 2‑day genesis probability lead time, while track forecasts were generally better than average at short ranges. Intensity forecasts performed poorly for this storm, with official forecasts overestimating strengthening; several guidance models also struggled with intensity but some global models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) outperformed the official intensity forecasts.