Julio (2008)

A tropical depression formed about 315 nautical miles south‑southeast of Cabo San Lucas on 23 August 2008 from a tropical wave that had crossed Central America. It became Tropical Storm Julio about six hours later and moved north‑northwestward along the edge of a mid‑level high pressure area. Julio reached its peak intensity on 24 August as it passed near and just west of Cabo San Lucas, then continued across southern Baja California, turned into the Gulf of California near Santa Rosalía late on 25 August, weakened to a remnant low by 26 August, and dissipated near Tastiota on the mainland of Mexico by 27 August.

Julio made landfall on the west coast of southern Baja California around 0000 UTC 25 August, about 35 nautical miles west‑southwest of La Paz, as a weak tropical storm with estimated winds of 40 knots (about 45 mph). After crossing the peninsula the center reached the Gulf of California near Santa Rosalía just before 0000 UTC 26 August as a tropical depression. The system then moved eastward over the central Gulf, degenerated to a remnant low on 26 August, and dissipated over mainland Mexico on 27 August.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 45 knots (about 52 mph) and the minimum central pressure was estimated near 998 mb around 24 August, making Julio a moderate tropical storm at peak intensity. Ship and coastal observations reported tropical‑storm‑force winds, and an automated station at Cabo San Lucas (elevation ~735 ft) logged a 10‑minute average wind of 38 knots with a gust to 51 knots on 24 August.

Significant rainfall occurred on the Baja California peninsula, including 6.54 inches in Loreto on 24 August and 5.20 inches in Mulegé on 25 August. Flooding was reported across parts of the peninsula; specific storm surge values were not given in the report. Ship reports showed tropical‑storm‑force winds near the circulation while the center passed close to Cabo San Lucas.

Julio caused one fatality: a drowning near Mulegé in Baja California. Flooding affected communities on the Baja peninsula, but the report did not provide monetary damage estimates for Mexico. Forecasts and warnings were issued in advance: tropical storm warnings for parts of southern Baja California were in place roughly 21 hours before the landfall there. Official intensity forecasts were relatively accurate (average errors of 3–4 kt for 12–48 h), while track errors were somewhat larger than recent multi‑year averages for the same lead times.