John (2006)

A tropical wave that moved from Africa across the Atlantic reached the eastern North Pacific in late August and organized into Tropical Depression Eleven about 235 nautical miles south of Salina Cruz, Mexico, at 0000 UTC on 28 August 2006. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm John later that day, became a hurricane on 29 August, and rapidly intensified to a major hurricane by 30 August. John reached its peak intensity on 30 August while moving roughly parallel to the coast of mainland Mexico, then turned toward the northwest and north-northwest, approaching and then crossing the southern Baja California peninsula before weakening and dissipating on 4 September.

John made landfall on the eastern tip of southern Baja California (Cabo del Este), about 40 nautical miles northeast of Cabo San Lucas, around 0200 UTC on 2 September. At that time the hurricane’s maximum sustained winds were estimated near 95 knots (about 110 mph). The center passed near La Paz later that morning (shortly before 1200 UTC 2 September) while the system was weakening and then continued inland across the Baja peninsula as a weakening tropical cyclone.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds at peak intensity were estimated at 115 knots (about 132 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 948 mb on 30 August; that peak corresponds to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. At landfall in southern Baja California the hurricane was weaker, with estimated sustained winds near 95 knots (about 110 mph), which is roughly a high-end Category 2 to low-end Category 3 intensity on that scale.

Significant rainfall and coastal flooding were reported in several locations. Los Planes recorded 12.50 inches of rain (almost 11 inches of that in 24 hours). San José del Cabo reported a 24-hour total of about 5.63 inches, and Santa Rosalía reported 5.77 inches. A 10-foot storm surge was reported in Acapulco, which flooded coastal roads there (noting that waves and tides may have contributed). La Paz reported the strongest sustained land wind observation of 45 kt (gust to 57 kt).

Press reports and post-storm assessments indicate five deaths in Baja California associated with John. Storm effects included destruction and damage to hundreds of homes — about 200 homes destroyed near La Paz and over 250 homes damaged or destroyed in Mulegé — flooding from dam overflow that isolated towns, widespread crop and livestock losses in southern Baja California, and mudslides and isolated communities from heavy rains on the mainland (for example, roughly 70 communities isolated in Guerrero). Heavy rains from John’s remnants also caused flooding in Ciudad Juárez and El Paso, Texas.

Noteworthy aspects include John’s unusually far-east genesis from a tropical wave originating off Africa, a period of rapid intensification to Category 4 on 30 August, and a lowest measured central pressure of 948 mb. Forecasts anticipated development early, and watches/warnings were issued well in advance, but official intensity forecasts underpredicted the rapid strengthening and there was a bias in some longer-range track forecasts that initially kept the hurricane offshore of Baja California rather than predicting the eventual landfall location.