Estelle (2016)

A well-defined low formed from a tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of southern Mexico on 15 July 2016 and became Tropical Storm Estelle by 0000 UTC 16 July while about 310 nautical miles south‑southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Steered generally west to west‑northwest by a strong high pressure area, Estelle moved away from the Mexican coast from 15–21 July, then gradually weakened over cooler waters, became post‑tropical about 0000 UTC 22 July, and its remnant low dissipated shortly after 0600 UTC 24 July about 800 n mi east‑northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Estelle did not make any mainland landfalls. The only island observation of tropical‑storm‑force conditions came from Clarion Island, located in the Revillagigedo Islands west of mainland Mexico; the island was passed about 35 nautical miles north of the storm center on 18 July when sustained winds and gusts were recorded there.

The strongest sustained winds in the official best track were 60 knots (69 mph), reached first at 1800 UTC 17 July and maintained intermittently through 20 July. The minimum central pressure at the time of that peak intensity was 990 millibars. These values correspond to a strong tropical storm, short of hurricane strength.

Storm surge and rainfall reports associated with Estelle were minimal in the official record. The Mexican navy station on Clarion Island measured a peak sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 72 kt at 1300 UTC 18 July; no specific surge heights or notable rainfall totals on named cities or Mexican mainland counties were reported in the NHC report.

There were no reports of damage or casualties—no fatalities or injuries—attributed to Estelle in the official record. The storm remained well offshore of populated coastal areas for its lifetime.

Noteworthy items: Estelle came close to hurricane strength but never achieved it; satellite and scatterometer data supported the peak intensity estimates. NHC forecasts predicted genesis reasonably well and track forecasts were more accurate than recent averages, while intensity forecasts had a high bias and generally overpredicted strengthening to hurricane strength. No coastal watches or warnings were required.