Emilia (2006)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave in the eastern North Pacific early on 21 July 2006 about 350 nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm Emilia on 22 July and moved generally northwest to west-northwest for about a week around the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge. Emilia reached brief peaks in strength on 23 July and again on 26 July, then turned west‑northwest, moved over much cooler waters, weakened to a depression on 27 July, and became a non‑convective remnant low on 28 July. The remnant low drifted westward and then northward before dissipating on 31 July about 430 n mi west-southwest of San Diego, California.

Emilia did not make a direct landfall on the Mexican mainland or Baja California, but its center passed about 50 nautical miles southwest of Cabo San Lázaro late on 26 July and roughly 150 n mi southwest of Manzanillo on 22 July. Tropical-storm-force winds and outer rain bands affected the southern tip and southwestern coast of the Baja California Peninsula and likely produced gusts along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Several watches and warnings were issued for portions of mainland Mexico and Baja California during 22–27 July.

The highest analyzed intensity for Emilia was 55 knots (about 63 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 990 mb, equivalent to a strong tropical storm but below hurricane strength. Peak 1‑minute sustained winds of 55 kt were reached around 1800 UTC 23 July and again between 0000–1200 UTC 26 July. A small mid‑level eye feature was briefly seen in microwave satellite imagery on 26 July, but it did not persist and the cyclone was not classified as a hurricane.

Storm surge and rainfall impacts were modest and localized. News reports indicated rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches at several locations in southern Baja California, with about 5 inches reported at Cabo San Lucas; higher amounts likely occurred in the higher terrain. Tropical-storm-force winds were observed at Cabo San Lucas (10‑minute average 37 kt) and at Puerto Cortés (37 kt with a gust to 48 kt), and several marinas along the southern tip of Baja California sustained minor wave damage and were closed for about two days.

There were no reported deaths associated with Emilia and damage was minor overall: some local flooding, minor damage to buildings and above‑ground utility lines near Cabo San Lucas, and damage to marinas. Forecasts initially underpredicted the cyclone’s formation by several hours and had a westward bias in track guidance early on, producing larger-than-average track errors through about 72 hours; intensity forecasts generally performed at or better than long‑term averages because the inhibiting effect of wind shear was anticipated.