Enrique (2021)

A tropical wave that crossed the Atlantic in mid-June moved into the eastern Pacific and developed into Tropical Storm Enrique on 25 June 2021 about 280 nautical miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Enrique moved west-northwest then northward, underwent a 24-hour period of rapid intensification late on 25–26 June, became a hurricane on 26 June, reached peak intensity on 27 June, and then slowed and turned northwest. The storm weakened as it moved away from the mainland over cooler waters and drier air, became a tropical storm by the evening of 28 June, a depression by 30 June near the southern Baja California peninsula, and dissipated later that day.

Enrique did not make a direct eye landfall on the mainland; its center passed within about 40 nautical miles of the west-central coast of Mexico on 27 June. As it approached the Baja California peninsula the system weakened and its low-level center was absorbed by a broad trough near La Paz on 30 June. Tropical-storm- and hurricane-force watches and warnings were issued for portions of the Mexican coast as the storm neared.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 80 knots (about 92 mph) from 0600 UTC 27 June through 0000 UTC 28 June, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 972 mb. At peak intensity Enrique was a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

Enrique produced very heavy rainfall and coastal flooding along southwestern Mexico. Rainfall exceeded 8 inches in localized areas of Colima, Jalisco, and Michoacán, with the highest reported totals of 21.34 inches (542.0 mm) and 15.11 inches (383.9 mm) at Lázaro Cárdenas and 14.26 inches (362.2 mm) at Higuera Blanca. Coastal reports included sustained winds near tropical-storm force along Jalisco; a Manzanillo station (Colima) reported a 30-kt sustained wind with a 40-kt gust on 27 June. The report notes flash flooding that inundated parts of Lázaro Cárdenas with over 4 feet of water and the collapse of the El Carrizo bridge in Colima. (No specific storm-surge height at tide gauges is listed in the report.)

Media-confirmed impacts included two direct fatalities in Guerrero from high surf and rip currents. Heavy rain, flooding, landslides, and strong winds damaged hundreds of homes across Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nayarit: for example, over 200 homes in Guerrero were damaged, roofs of 120 homes collapsed in Coahuayutla, and more than 115,000 electric customers lost power in Jalisco. The most severe damage reported included collapsed bridges and extensive inland flooding.

Noteworthy items from the analysis: NHC forecasts successfully anticipated Enrique’s formation well in advance, and official intensity forecasts were generally good. Track forecasts were below average error through 48 hours but larger-than-normal errors occurred at longer ranges (96–120 h) because models underestimated the influence of a mid-level trough that altered Enrique’s motion.