Erick (2013)

A tropical wave that moved off West Africa in mid-June tracked across the Atlantic and Caribbean before entering the eastern Pacific. It organized near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and became Tropical Depression Five at 1200 UTC on 4 July 2013 about 180 nautical miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The system strengthened to Tropical Storm Erick on 5 July, reached hurricane strength early on 6 July, held near peak intensity while its northeastern quadrant brushed the southwestern Mexican coast, then weakened over cooler waters and became a remnant low by 0600 UTC on 9 July before dissipating later that day. The overall motion was west‑northwestward along and just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico and then near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Erick did not make a direct, well‑defined inland landfall as a hurricane but its circulation brushed the coast of southwestern Mexico on 6–7 July. The northeastern portion of the circulation passed close to coastal areas from roughly Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes and later moved near the southwestern coast of the Baja California Peninsula on 8–9 July while at tropical storm strength. Tropical storm warnings and, briefly, hurricane watches were issued for portions of the coast as the center remained just offshore.

The storm’s maximum analyzed intensity was 70 knots (80 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 983 mb at 1200 UTC on 6 July 2013, making Erick a Category 1 hurricane at peak. Erick maintained that intensity for about 24 hours before weakening to a tropical storm as convection diminished over cooler ocean waters.

Observed storm effects included strong wind gusts and heavy rains along the Pacific coast of Mexico. A Mexican automated station at Chamelacuixi, Jalisco, reported gusts to 46 kt (about 53 mph) at 0010 UTC on 7 July. Flooding was severe in some river valleys; in one town in the state of Jalisco the main river rose as much as six meters (about 20 feet) above normal. Thousands of residents were moved to shelters—about 5,000 people were reported sheltered in the western state of Nayarit.

Press reports attributed two direct deaths to Erick: a 44‑year‑old man apparently swept away by the Indio River and a second body found amid river‑carried rubble in Jalisco; two people were also reported missing. The greatest impacts were freshwater flooding and river‑related damage in parts of Jalisco and nearby coastal areas; the storm produced gusty winds and coastal flooding but did not cause widespread structural destruction reported in the official record.

Forecasts and warnings performed well: the precursor disturbance was highlighted in the Tropical Weather Outlook well before formation, and NHC track and intensity forecasts had lower than average errors for this event. Erick’s faster‑than‑expected strengthening to a hurricane and its subsequent earlier weakening as it moved over cooler waters were noted as aspects where intensity evolution differed somewhat from initial expectations.