Celia (2016)

Celia formed from a tropical wave that crossed Central America and moved into the far eastern North Pacific. A broad low developed several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and a tropical depression formed about 1800 UTC 6 July 2016 (roughly 475 nmi south-southwest of Manzanillo). The system moved generally west to west-northwest under a subtropical ridge, became a tropical storm by 1200 UTC 8 July, reached hurricane strength by 1800 UTC 10 July, and tracked well westward into the Central Pacific basin before losing deep convection and becoming post-tropical on 16 July. The remnant low persisted and weakened into a trough by 21 July about 750 nmi west-northwest of Kauai.

Celia did not make any landfalls. Its center remained over open water throughout its lifetime and passed north of the Hawaiian Islands as a weakening post-tropical low on 18–19 July.

The hurricane’s peak intensity was estimated at 85 knots (98 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 972 mb, reached at 1800 UTC 11 July. That intensity corresponds to a Category 2 storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

Storm surge was not reported for coastal areas because Celia stayed over open ocean. Rainfall associated with Celia’s moisture moving across Hawaii produced totals of about 1.0 to 2.5 inches across parts of Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Island of Hawaii on 18–19 July. Large swells and surf up to about 10 ft affected east-facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands from roughly 16–19 July.

There were two direct deaths associated with Celia, both drownings on the southeastern shore of Oahu on 16 July due to rough surf and rip currents. No storm-related structural damage was reported.

Noteworthy items: Celia intensified to a Category 2 hurricane while remaining far offshore, and the timing of its initial formation was harder to predict than its subsequent track. Official NHC track forecasts for Celia were notably accurate, with mean track errors well below the recent 5-year averages, while intensity forecasts performed slightly better than average at most lead times. No coastal watches or warnings were issued.