Bud (2018)

A tropical depression formed about 285 nautical miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, at 1800 UTC 9 June 2018 from a tropical wave. The system became Tropical Storm Bud six hours later and moved generally northwest and then north-northwest. Bud underwent very rapid strengthening over warm eastern Pacific waters, reaching hurricane strength about 24 hours after formation and becoming a major hurricane soon after. It reached peak intensity on 12 June while about 175 n mi southwest of Manzanillo, then weakened rapidly as it moved over cooler water and toward the Baja California peninsula. The circulation moved across southern Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California before losing organized convection and dissipating by 16 June.

Bud made one landfall near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, at 0200 UTC 15 June 2018. The official best-track landfall intensity was 40 knots (about 46 mph) with an estimated central pressure near 999 mb. The storm crossed the peninsula for roughly nine hours and emerged into the Gulf of California before falling apart; no other landfalls were recorded.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds at peak were estimated at 120 knots (about 138 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 943 mb, making Bud a high-end Category 4 hurricane at peak intensity on the Saffir–Simpson scale. After peak on 12 June the hurricane weakened quickly over cooler waters and was a tropical storm by 13 June.

No official storm-surge measurements or rainfall totals from Mexico are available in the report. A few surface observations noted strong winds in downtown Cabo San Lucas on 14 June (an automated station recorded sustained winds of 51 kt with a 67 kt gust), though nearby observations were lower; the San Jose del Cabo Airport recorded a pressure of 1000.7 mb around landfall. The report states only minor impacts from locally heavy rain and flooding in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico.

No deaths or damage were reported in association with Bud in the official report. Impacts were described as generally minor, limited to localized flooding and rain-related effects in Baja California Sur and nearby areas. Forecasts correctly predicted the system’s genesis well in advance and the NHC track forecasts were more accurate than recent averages; however, the rapid intensification and the rapid subsequent weakening were not well forecast, a common model bias noted in the report.