Blas (2022)

A compact area of disturbed weather over the eastern North Pacific organized into Tropical Storm Blas on 14 June 2022 about 250 nautical miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The system moved generally west to west-northwest, running roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico from 14–19 June. Blas strengthened quickly, became a hurricane on 15 June, reached peak intensity twice (15–16 June and again 17 June), then weakened as it moved over cooler water and into drier, more sheared air, becoming post-tropical on 19 June and dissipating by 23 June about 450 nmi west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Blas did not make any landfalls. Its center remained well offshore of the Mexican coast while passing southwest of coastal areas such as Acapulco and Manzanillo between 15 and 17 June, and no land-based watches or warnings were issued.

The maximum sustained winds at peak intensity were 75 knots (about 86 mph) and the estimated minimum central pressure was 978 mb. Those peak conditions correspond to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale; the primary peak periods were centered on 1800 UTC 15 June–0000 UTC 16 June and again around 0600–1800 UTC 17 June.

Although Blas stayed offshore, its moisture combined with a nearby tropical wave and Mexico’s coastal mountains to produce heavy rain along the southwest coast. Notable rainfall totals included 12.60 inches (320.0 mm) at Laguna de Coyuca, 7.95 inches (202.0 mm) at Kilómetro 21, and 7.92 inches (201.2 mm) at the Observatorio de Acapulco. Waves and rough surf produced beach erosion along the coast; Socorro Island reported a gust to 45 kt as the storm passed about 35 nmi southwest of the island.

There were no confirmed direct deaths attributed to Blas. Media reports noted two bodies found near Playa Manzanillo in Acapulco, but the causes were undetermined and not confirmed as storm-related. Reported impacts were generally minor: some flash and river flooding, a few landslides, a sinkhole on the Acapulco–Zihuatanejo bypass, dozens of vehicles stranded by floodwaters, downed trees, fences, and utility poles in Guerrero, and localized beach erosion.

Noteworthy items from the analysis: forecasters anticipated the storm’s formation well, and the official intensity forecasts performed better than many guidance models. Track forecast errors were larger than recent averages at short lead times but smaller at longer lead times. Satellite and scatterometer data were important for monitoring Blas because it remained offshore and observational coverage was limited.