Agatha (2016)

A small tropical cyclone formed from a tropical wave that crossed into the eastern North Pacific on 24 June 2016 and gradually organized over warm waters. A tropical depression formed at 0000 UTC on 2 July about 600 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The system moved generally west‑northwestward around the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge, became Tropical Storm Agatha later on 2 July, reached its peak on 3 July, began weakening on 3–4 July, and degenerated to a post‑tropical remnant low by 0600 UTC on 5 July. The remnant low continued westward into the Central Pacific on 7 July and dissipated about 24 hours later east of Hawaii.

Agatha remained over the open Pacific and did not make landfall. No coastal watches or warnings were issued because the storm never threatened land.

The analyzed peak intensity was 45 knots (about 52 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb, corresponding to a moderate tropical storm (below hurricane strength). Peak winds occurred near 0600–1200 UTC on 3 July when satellite estimates and objective techniques indicated the strongest intensity.

Because Agatha stayed well offshore, there were no measured storm surge impacts onshore. Rainfall and storm surge reports for coastal cities and counties are not available in association with Agatha, and no notable surge or heavy-rainfall totals were recorded on land.

There were no reports of damage or casualties—no deaths, injuries, or property impacts linked to Agatha. The storm’s formation was relatively poorly anticipated: the National Hurricane Center gave only a low probability of development until roughly 30 hours before genesis and only raised probabilities to the medium range about 6 hours before formation. NHC track and intensity forecasts for Agatha performed comparably or better than recent averages, with official intensity forecasts doing particularly well at short lead times.