Victor (2021)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave about 465 nautical miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands around 1200 UTC on 29 September 2021. The system strengthened into Tropical Storm Victor six hours later and moved generally west‑northwestward along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge. Victor reached its peak on 1 October and then turned more northwestward while weakening. The system fell to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 2 October, became a shallow, elongated circulation, degenerated into a trough by 1200 UTC 4 October, and its remnants dissipated by early 5 October well over the central Atlantic.

Victor did not make landfall. It remained over the open eastern and central tropical Atlantic throughout its life and no coastal watches or warnings were required.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 55 kt (about 63 mph) and the estimated minimum central pressure at peak was 997 mb, corresponding to a moderate tropical storm on the Saffir‑Simpson scale (below hurricane strength). Victor held that peak intensity from 1200 to 1800 UTC on 1 October before gradually weakening due to increasing shear and intrusion of dry mid‑level air.

Because Victor stayed far from land, there were no storm surge reports and no rainfall impacts tied to the cyclone onshore. The NHC report contains no surge heights or rainfall totals for populated locations because Victor did not affect coastal or island areas.

There were no reported deaths or damage associated with Victor. The disturbance that became Victor was unusually well predicted before formation: the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook increased genesis probabilities well in advance, with high (>60%) 5‑day genesis chances issued about 60 hours before formation. Forecast track and intensity errors later in Victor’s life were larger than average at some forecast times, partly because models and forecasts had expected stronger, deeper development and a different track than actually occurred.