Stan (2005)

A broad tropical wave that moved westward across the Caribbean organized into a tropical depression about 115 nautical miles southeast of Cozumel at 1200 UTC on 1 October 2005. The system strengthened to a tropical storm and made its first landfall on the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula near Punta Hualaxtoc (about 35 n mi south of Tulum) around 1000 UTC on 2 October. After crossing the peninsula it moved into the Bay of Campeche, turned southwestward, rapidly intensified to hurricane strength early on 4 October, and then moved ashore the Mexican Gulf coast before weakening and dissipating over the mountains of Oaxaca just after 0600 UTC on 5 October.

Stan made two center landfalls in Mexico. The first was near Punta Hualaxtoc (south of Tulum) around 1000 UTC on 2 October as a tropical storm. The second, and stronger, landfall was near Punta Roca Partida (about 80 n mi east-southeast of Veracruz) around 1200 UTC on 4 October as a Category 1 hurricane with 70 kt (80 mph) sustained winds.

The cyclone’s maximum analyzed intensity was 70 kt (80 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 977 mb at 1200 UTC 4 October, making it a Category 1 hurricane at peak. Aircraft flight-level and dropsonde data supported the 70 kt surface wind estimate.

Storm tide and rainfall were significant in parts of Mexico. Reported storm tide or surge values include tide observations and local storm tide reports near Veracruz reaching several feet (observational tables list storm tide/storm surge entries up to about 9–10 ft at some stations). Rainfall totals in Mexico included many stations with very heavy rain: notable totals listed include 12.08 inches at El Novillero, 11.61 inches at Cancún, 12.01 inches at Cuetzalan, 11.25 inches at Zacapuaxtla, 10.74 inches at Tapachula and Jacatepec, and numerous other stations with totals exceeding 8–10 inches. Heavy rains extended into extreme eastern Mexico and Central America.

Officially attributed direct deaths in Mexico totaled 80 (across Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Chiapas). However, Stan was part of a larger-scale low-level circulation that produced catastrophic inland flooding across parts of Central America and Mexico; overall loss-of-life estimates for Mexico and Central America range mostly from about 1,000 to 2,000 people, with Guatemala especially hard hit (over 1,000 fatalities estimated there). The storm caused widespread flood damage, landslides, and destruction of homes and infrastructure in the affected regions.

Forecasts and warnings: tropical storm warnings for the Yucatán coast were issued roughly 19 hours before the first landfall, and hurricane warnings for the Gulf coast were issued about 21 hours before the second landfall, but Stan’s unexpected leftward turn and more rapid acceleration caused the center to reach the coast sooner and farther east than forecast. Official track errors through 72 hours were comparable to or slightly larger than 1995–2004 averages, and intensity increased to hurricane strength faster than predicted.