Pablo (2019)

Hurricane Pablo formed from a non-tropical low in the central North Atlantic. A small subtropical storm developed about 350 nautical miles west-southwest of the western Azores around 0000–0600 UTC 25 October 2019, became a tropical storm by 1800 UTC 25 October, and moved generally east-northeastward. Pablo transitioned to a hurricane on 27 October while passing southeast of the eastern Azores, then weakened and became extratropical near 1200 UTC 28 October about 625 n mi north-northeast of the eastern Azores before dissipating by 29 October.

There were no tropical cyclone landfalls by Pablo. The storm passed to the southeast of the eastern Azores on 26–27 October; the stronger winds and most weather impacts in the Azores came from the larger baroclinic low that contained Pablo rather than Pablo’s tropical core. No coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings were issued for the Azores.

Pablo’s maximum sustained winds reached an estimated 70 knots (80 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 977 mb at 1800 UTC 27 October, making it a high-end Category 1 hurricane at peak intensity. The hurricane stage was brief; Pablo weakened rapidly after 27 October as it moved over cooler waters and approached a frontal zone.

There were no reports of storm surge or measured tropical-storm- or hurricane-force winds directly associated with Pablo in the Azores or from ships during the subtropical and tropical phases. The NHC report notes many gale- to storm-force wind reports from the larger baroclinic low that spawned Pablo (for example, a ship report of 50 kt from the Norwegian Pearl on 24 October), but no specific storm-surge heights or rainfall totals tied directly to Pablo were reported.

No damage or casualties were reported in association with Pablo. The cyclone was notable for its unusual location: based on the historical record at the time, Pablo became the farthest-northeast forming hurricane in the North Atlantic basin. Its formation was essentially unforecast by the Tropical Weather Outlooks, and official forecasts had larger-than-average track and intensity errors because the system’s evolution from a baroclinic low into a subtropical and then tropical cyclone was not well predicted.