Rina (2011)

A broad low in the western Caribbean organized into Tropical Depression Eighteen about 55 nmi north of Providencia Island on 0600 UTC 23 October 2011. The system became Tropical Storm Rina on 24 October and rapidly strengthened over very warm water, reaching hurricane strength by 1800 UTC 24 October and major hurricane strength about 24 hours later. Rina reached its peak about 0000 UTC 26 October while centered roughly 220 nmi east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, then turned west-northwest and northwest, weakened, moved northward, made landfall on the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula, emerged briefly into the Yucatán Channel, and dissipated early on 29 October southeast of western Cuba.

Rina made a single official landfall near Paamul, Mexico (about 10 nmi southwest of Playa del Carmen) around 0200 UTC 28 October 2011. At landfall the system was a tropical storm with estimated sustained winds of 50 kt (about 58 mph) and a surface pressure near 996–997 mb. The center remained over the Yucatán for about nine hours before convection collapsed and the cyclone degenerated to a remnant low later that day.

Maximum analyzed intensity was 100 kt (115 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 966 mb, making Rina a Category 3 major hurricane at its peak around 0000 UTC 26 October. This peak is based primarily on high surface wind measurements from aircraft instruments (SFMR) and supporting aircraft data; a post-storm analysis judged the higher SFMR values to be valid.

Observed storm surge and rainfall were modest at the coast where the storm impacted Mexico. Reported storm-surge heights and storm-tide measurements near the landfall area are limited in the record; selected surface observations show storm-chaser and station reports but no large, widely reported surge values. Rainfall totals included stations in the Cancún/Quintana Roo area with reports of several inches—examples include automated reports in Cancun and surrounding communities showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds and gusts (e.g., a public report in Cancun of sustained 46 kt with gusts to 62 kt). The published station table lists total rainfall observations but does not show extreme single-location totals in the NHC report.

No significant damage or casualties were reported in association with Rina; the report lists no confirmed deaths and no major damage. The greatest impacts were limited to localized wind, rain, and minor coastal flooding in parts of the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula and nearby islands as Rina weakened before landfall.

Noteworthy aspects include Rina’s rapid intensification over the western Caribbean to a major hurricane and the post-storm decision to accept high aircraft SFMR wind readings for the peak intensity. Forecast track performance was excellent for Rina, with official track errors well below recent averages, while intensity forecasts were less accurate—forecasts tended to be too conservative early on and held higher winds too long after peak intensity.