Paulette (2020)

A broad tropical wave that left Africa on September 2 merged with a nearby area of low pressure and became a tropical depression on September 7 about 1,000 nautical miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Paulette later that day and moved generally west‑northwestward, then northward as steering ridges changed. Paulette became a hurricane on September 13 about 360 nmi southeast of Bermuda, passed over Bermuda on September 14, transitioned to an extratropical cyclone by September 16, drifted near the Azores, regenerated into a tropical storm on September 20, and finally became post‑tropical again on September 22 before dissipating by September 28.

Paulette made its closest approach and passed over Bermuda on 14 September; the best‑track indicates the center passed over the island from about 0730 to 1000 UTC on September 14 with the western eyewall affecting the island. There were no other direct landfalls recorded; after passing Bermuda Paulette moved northeast and became extratropical about 350 nmi southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland on September 16. It later reformed into a tropical storm south‑southwest of the Azores on September 20 and weakened to post‑tropical on September 22.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds peaked at 90 knots (about 104 mph) at 1800 UTC on September 14, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 965 mb at that time. That peak corresponds to a high end Category 2 intensity on the Saffir‑Simpson scale. Aircraft and satellite data, including a dropwindsonde and SFMR measurements, supported the peak intensity estimate.

Measured storm surge and rainfall on Bermuda included a storm surge of 2.38 ft (0.73 m) above normal at the Bermuda Biological Station, producing a peak water level about 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water. Rainfall observations were limited by power outages; the highest official gauge was 2.91 inches at the Bermuda Weather Service office, while an amateur report at Hog Bay measured 5.45 inches. Wind observations on Bermuda included sustained winds to about 69 kt (at 8 m on Pearl Island) and gusts up to 84 kt at the airport heliport; an elevated site measured a gust to 102 kt.

There were three direct deaths and one injury associated with Paulette, all from rip currents along the U.S. east coast: a six‑year‑old boy at Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 60‑year‑old man in Lavalette, New Jersey, drowned; another child and a woman at Folly Beach were rescued and the woman had minor injuries. Bermuda sustained widespread impacts from the hurricane‑force winds: about 25,000 customers (roughly 70% of the island) lost power and overall damage was estimated near $50 million (USD).

Notable aspects include Paulette’s long lifespan and unusual regeneration into a tropical storm after becoming extratropical near the Azores. Forecasts anticipated the initial formation well, but the post‑tropical redevelopment was not well predicted. NHC track forecasts were accurate at short range and correctly called for a very close approach to Bermuda several days in advance, though they tended to be too slow during the hurricane’s re‑curvature and northeast acceleration.