Nicole (2010)

A large area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean developed into Tropical Storm Nicole on 28 September 2010 about 65 nautical miles south of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Nicole moved generally northeastward and was short‑lived as a tropical cyclone, lasting from 28 into 29 September as a defined tropical storm. The storm’s circulation was unusually large and asymmetric, with strongest winds hundreds of miles from the center; its center became untrackable over Cuba on 29 September and the system finished extratropical by 30 September in the northwestern Bahamas before weakening into a trough and being absorbed near the U.S. East Coast.

Nicole made no high‑end hurricane landfalls; its primary interactions with land were across parts of Cuba and heavy impacts across Jamaica and southeastern Florida from its large wind and rain fields. Watches and warnings were issued for parts of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and portions of Florida on 28–29 September. The cyclone’s center crossed or moved over eastern Cuba on 29 September, and the system’s circulation affected Jamaica from 26–30 September as the precursor low and storm passed.

The storm’s peak intensity was estimated at 40 knots (about 46 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 995 millibars, making Nicole a tropical storm at maximum. Aircraft and satellite data showed flight‑level winds near 46 kt but surface estimates and scatterometer data supported a 40‑kt (about 46 mph) peak in the best track. The strongest winds were widely spread rather than confined near the center.

Nicole produced very heavy rainfall and some storm surge in affected areas. Jamaica received exceptional totals from the precursor low and Nicole combined: Belleisle, Jamaica reported 37.42 inches of rain, and many locations on the island reported 1–2 feet of rain over a five‑day period (26–30 September). In southeastern Florida and the Keys, notable totals included 12.64 inches at North Key Largo, 12.28 inches at Islamorada (COCORAHS), and widespread 6–10 inch totals across parts of Miami‑Dade and Monroe counties; Miami Beach reported about 7.20 inches. In Cuba the maximum reported total was 9.22 inches at Cabo Cruz. Local storm surge and tide observations showed elevated water levels at coastal stations (for example, some near‑shore tide stations and C‑MAN sites recorded storm tides and gusty conditions), and Jamaica reported strong gusts such as a 55‑kt gust near Negril.

Jamaica suffered the most severe impacts. The Government of Jamaica reported 13 deaths associated with Nicole, primarily from severe flooding, and widespread infrastructure damage with over 300,000 households temporarily without power; estimated repair costs to infrastructure were about $235 million (USD). In the United States there were no reported deaths; impacts were comparatively minor and included street flooding in Miami Beach and the upper Florida Keys and isolated residential flooding (for example, about a foot of water inside one residence at the Florida Boy Scout Sea Base in the Keys).

Noteworthy aspects of Nicole included its unusually large, lopsided structure—resembling a monsoon‑type depression with the radius of strongest winds hundreds of miles from the center—and the exceptional rainfall over Jamaica from the combined low/storm. Forecasts generally anticipated its formation, though official track forecast errors were larger than recent averages (partly because the initial center position was uncertain); intensity forecasts performed reasonably well for this short‑lived system.