Mindy (2021)

A compact area of low pressure that began as a tropical wave off Africa in late August moved westward and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. The system organized quickly on 8 September 2021 and is estimated to have become Tropical Storm Mindy at 1800 UTC about 140 nautical miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Mindy moved northeastward across the northern Gulf, strengthened during the evening of 8 September, made landfall early on 9 September, crossed the Florida Big Bend and southeastern Georgia, emerged off the Carolinas, and became post-tropical by 0000 UTC 10 September before merging with a frontal zone on 11 September.

Mindy made landfall on St. Vincent Island, Florida, at about 0115 UTC 9 September (roughly 10 n mi west-southwest of Apalachicola) as a tropical storm with estimated 1-minute sustained winds of 50 kt (about 58 mph). After landfall the center moved near the Florida Big Bend, passed just south of Tallahassee, weakened to a tropical depression by 1200 UTC 9 September while crossing northern Florida and far southeast Georgia, and moved offshore later that day.

The storm’s maximum intensity at landfall was estimated at 50 knots (about 58 mph), with a minimum central pressure near 1000 mb. That intensity is supported by multiple surface stations (adjusted measurements near Island View Park and St. George Island Bridge) and Doppler radar velocity reductions to the surface.

Storm surge was minor along the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay, generally 1–2 feet above normally dry ground. The highest tide/gauge-based surge measurements included 1.58 ft above normal at Cedar Key and local water levels up to about 2.1–2.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water at Shell Point, the Suwannee River mouth, and Steinhatchee. Rainfall was modest overall because Mindy moved quickly; peak totals included 5.60 inches at Beverly Hills, Florida, 4.85 inches at a Tallahassee Forestry Service site, and up to 5.68 inches near Beaufort, South Carolina. A brief EF0 tornado caused only minor tree damage in rural Wakulla County, Florida.

Impacts were limited. Wind‑downed trees caused scattered power outages — about 10,000 customers across the central Florida Panhandle and additional outages in southeast Georgia — and some structural damage (two homes with tree damage and one mobile home destroyed in Leon County, with no injuries reported). No deaths were reported in the United States related to Mindy. However, when the system’s precursor moved slowly across the Yucatán Peninsula earlier, heavy rains and flooding there were associated with 23 fatalities and more than $75 million in estimated economic losses.

Two noteworthy items: Mindy developed only about 6 hours before landfall, so tropical storm warnings were issued with relatively short lead times for the Florida Panhandle. NHC track and intensity forecasts for the short-lived storm were comparable to or better than recent averages, but the genesis location and timing were less well predicted earlier in the system’s evolution because the disturbance spent time inland and reorganized only after entering the Gulf.