Karen (2013)

A broad area of low pressure that moved westward across the Caribbean organized into Tropical Storm Karen about 0600 UTC on 3 October 2013, roughly 30 nautical miles north of Cancún, Mexico. Karen moved northwest to north-northwest into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on 3 October and then tracked generally northwestward and northward in the central Gulf. The storm persisted as a tropical cyclone from 3 October until it weakened to a depression early on 6 October about 140 n mi southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, and its circulation opened into a trough by 1200 UTC 6 October. The remnants moved across Florida into the western Atlantic over the next couple of days.

Karen did not make a direct landfall as a tropical cyclone. Its center passed near the northeastern tip of the Yucatán Peninsula early on 3 October, then moved into the Gulf where it weakened and dissipated without coming ashore along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Tropical storm watches and warnings were issued for parts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, but no tropical-storm-force winds were recorded along the northern Gulf coast.

The maximum sustained wind for Karen was 55 knots (about 63 mph) and the minimum central pressure was 998 mb, reached late on 3 October. On the NHC best track, Karen’s peak intensity was recorded at 1200–2100 UTC 3 October when the satellite presentation was most organized.

Storm surge and rainfall impacts were minimal. A NOAA buoy in the central Gulf (42001) recorded peak winds of 40 kt with gusts to 49 kt and a minimum pressure of 1007.7 mb when the center passed about 30 n mi to the southwest on 4 October; buoy 42056 in the northwestern Caribbean reported 35‑kt winds and a pressure of 1006.5 mb prior to genesis. There were no reports of notable storm-surge heights or major rainfall totals at specific cities or counties associated with Karen in the NHC report.

There were no confirmed deaths or reports of damage attributed to Karen. The storm was notable for dissipating in the Gulf of Mexico without making landfall, a relatively rare occurrence in the reconnaissance era. Forecasts had larger-than-average track and intensity errors for this storm period because strong shear and dry air caused weakening earlier than expected; operational use of new NOAA P-3 tail Doppler radar data in the HWRF model during the event showed reduced intensification when those data were assimilated.