Julia (2016)

A small tropical cyclone formed just offshore of southeastern Florida early on 13 September 2016 from a tropical wave that had crossed the Atlantic in early September. Julia became a tropical depression at about 0600 UTC 13 September near Jensen Beach, Florida, and strengthened to a tropical storm six hours later. The storm moved erratically along and just inland of the east coast of Florida, then turned northward and northeastward into southeastern Georgia on 14 September. Julia weakened to a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 17 September about 250 nautical miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, lost its deep convection on 18 September, became a remnant low early on 19 September, then transitioned to a weak extratropical low and dissipated by 21 September.

Julia made landfall near Jensen Beach, Florida, at about 0600 UTC 13 September 2016 as a tropical depression with sustained winds near 30 kt (about 35 mph). After briefly moving along the coast, the center moved over southeastern Georgia early on 14 September with sustained winds near 40 kt (about 45 mph). No other direct tropical cyclone landfalls at higher intensity were recorded along its track.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 45 kt (approximately 52 mph) around 1800 UTC 13 September, and the minimum central pressure in the best track was 1007 mb at 0000 UTC 15 September. Julia’s peak intensity placed it below hurricane strength; it remained a tropical storm at its strongest.

Storm surge and rainfall were modest and highly uneven because most of the strongest winds and convection were on the storm’s northeastern side. Reported storm-tide and wind observations included sustained tropical-storm-force winds at locations such as Crescent Beach, Florida (sustained 45 kt, gusts to 51 kt), Mayport/ Jacksonville area, and St. Augustine. Rainfall totals were generally low, but Glynn County, Georgia (near St. Simons Island) recorded the heaviest coastal rain with 6.49 inches. Some stations recorded storm tides and gusty winds along the northeastern Florida and coastal Georgia coasts.

No deaths were reported in association with Julia. Damage was minor: a few trees were down in northeastern Florida, an EF-0 tornado near Barefoot Bay tore off part of a roof, and media reports noted some flooding around Charleston, South Carolina. The greatest effects were limited to northeastern Florida and coastal Georgia, with later heavy rain and flooding in northeastern North Carolina and the Hampton Roads area of Virginia during the system’s extratropical phase.

Julia’s formation was unexpected and genesis forecasts were poor; the system was placed in the Tropical Weather Outlook only about 114 hours before post-analysis showed it became a tropical cyclone. Track forecasts initially had larger-than-average short-range errors because models underestimated the storm’s vertical coherence and rightward motion in a high-shear environment. NHC intensity forecasts, however, performed well and closely matched Julia’s modest and relatively steady intensity.