Kyle (2008)

A broad area of disturbed weather that moved off Africa in mid-September gradually organized as it crossed the Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola. A well-defined surface circulation formed north of the Dominican Republic, and the system became a tropical depression at 0000 UTC on 25 September 2008 about 100 nautical miles north of the Dominican Republic. It strengthened to tropical storm status six hours later, moved generally northward then north-northeast, became a hurricane at 1200 UTC 27 September about 300 n mi west of Bermuda, and transitioned to an extratropical system after moving through Atlantic Canada. The cyclone was absorbed by a larger extratropical low by 1800 UTC 30 September.

Kyle made landfall on the western tip of Nova Scotia just north of Yarmouth at 0000 UTC on 29 September 2008 as a hurricane with sustained winds of 65 knots (75 mph). Prior to that final landfall the system remained over open water while passing west of Bermuda and moving northward; watches and warnings were issued for parts of the U.S. northeast coast and Atlantic Canada, but significant impacts along the U.S. coast were not reported.

The storm’s maximum intensity was 75 knots (85 mph) at 1200 UTC on 28 September with a minimum central pressure near 989 mb at that time. The lowest pressure observed in post-analysis was about 984 mb later on 28 September, though winds had begun to decrease by then as the cyclone started losing tropical characteristics.

Storm surge and rainfall impacts varied by location. Reported storm surge heights included about 1.7 ft above normal tide at Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, and a storm tide near 1.69 ft there; North Cape, Prince Edward Island recorded a surge near 0.97 ft. Buoy and coastal station winds and pressures were notable on Georges Bank and other offshore locations (buoy 41011 recorded sustained winds to 52 kt and a pressure around 994.6 mb). Rainfall totals from the precursor low were extreme in Puerto Rico, with totals up to about 30 inches reported in places, producing severe flooding there.

Six deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to the heavy rains and resulting flash floods and mudslides produced by the low that preceded Kyle; those fatalities are reported in the NHC record and are associated with the precursor flooding rather than winds in Canada. In Nova Scotia and nearby provinces damage from Kyle itself was relatively minor: uprooted trees, broken limbs, power outages, and localized street flooding in Shelburne. No major structural damage or widespread coastal destruction was reported in Atlantic Canada.

Noteworthy items include that operational warnings began after the storm’s formation time identified in post-analysis (advisories were initiated 18 hours after the depression time in the best track), and forecast performance for Kyle was generally good: official track and intensity errors during this event were smaller than the long-term means, and several numerical models (including the European model and the GFDL) performed particularly well on the track.