Isidore (2002)

A tropical wave that moved off Africa on 9 September 2002 organized into a tropical depression near Trinidad on 14 September, weakened to a wave, then reformed as a depression about 120 nautical miles south of Kingston, Jamaica on 17 September. The system became Tropical Storm Isidore on 18 September and moved very slowly across the western Caribbean, becoming a hurricane on 19 September. Isidore wandered over western Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula, spent time over the Gulf of Mexico, and crossed the northern Gulf coast before moving inland across the southeastern United States and becoming extratropical over southwestern Pennsylvania on 27 September.

Isidore made three principal landfalls. It first struck western Cuba near Cabo Frances on 20 September with maximum winds around 75 knots (about 85 mph). It then made landfall on the north coast of Yucatán near Puerto Telchac on 22 September at roughly its peak intensity. Finally, Isidore reached the U.S. coast just west of Grand Isle, Louisiana on 26 September as a strong tropical storm with sustained winds near 55 knots (about 63 mph).

The storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 110 knots (about 125 mph) at 1800 UTC 21 September, with the lowest central pressure measured at 934 mb at 1200 UTC 22 September. That peak intensity corresponds to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Aircraft and satellite data were used to determine this peak, though some satellite estimates were higher than the aircraft-based analysis.

Storm surge and heavy rain caused notable coastal and inland impacts. Along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the highest storm surge reported was 8.3 feet at Rigolets, Louisiana and at Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi; Gulfport reported an 8.26-foot surge and Pensacola, Florida locations reported storm tide and surge in the 5–7 foot range (Pensacola Beach storm tide about 6.7 ft). In Cuba, Isabel Rubio measured 21.7 inches (554 mm) of rain and reported gusts to 75 knots; many western Cuba locations reported double-digit rainfall totals (for example, La Fe 19.6 in, Nueva Gerona 17.9 in). Mérida, Yucatán recorded gusts to 70 knots and 5.8 inches of rain, with a minimum pressure near 969.9 mb.

Isidore was responsible for multiple deaths and widespread damage. Official accounts list two indirect deaths in Mérida, Mexico, and in the United States five direct and one indirect deaths were reported (including drownings in rip currents and vehicle-related flooding). Agriculture and cattle in western Cuba and the Yucatán were severely damaged, many houses and power lines were destroyed, and U.S. insured losses were reported at about $165 million; an overall U.S. damage estimate using standard adjustment was about $330 million, with most U.S. damage in Louisiana.

Noteworthy aspects include Isidore’s slow, meandering track that produced extended heavy rains over western Cuba and the Yucatán and a prolonged period of Gulf influence before the U.S. landfall. Forecast track errors for Isidore were smaller than the 1992–2001 average, and several global forecast models captured an unusual southward excursion over the Yucatán that the official forecast initially did not. Official intensity forecasts had larger-than-average errors because the cyclone spent significant time over land and weakened more than expected.