Fernand (2019)

Fernand developed from a low-pressure area that moved through the Caribbean and into the western Gulf of Mexico. It became a tropical storm about 170 nautical miles east of La Pesca, Mexico, near 1200 UTC on 3 September 2019. The cyclone moved generally west to west-northwest, briefly jogged north-northwest, and weakened over land, dissipating over the rugged terrain of northeastern Mexico shortly after 0000 UTC on 5 September.

The storm made landfall in northeastern Mexico on 4 September 2019 at about 1530 UTC, roughly 25 nautical miles north‑northeast of La Pesca. At landfall Fernand was a tropical storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 40 kt (about 46 mph). It weakened quickly to a tropical depression and fell apart overland later that night.

Fernand’s peak intensity was 45 kt (about 52 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb, reached around 0000 UTC on 4 September. That intensity corresponds to a minimal tropical-storm strength rather than hurricane strength.

The storm produced very heavy rainfall in northeastern Mexico, especially in the state of Nuevo León. Monterrey recorded as much as 20.83 inches (529 mm) of rain. In the northern fringe of the system, south Texas saw gusty winds and rainfall totals up to 3.7 inches (94 mm) at Port Isabel. A ship report and coastal observations recorded gusts in the 30–35 kt range; no large storm-surge values were reported in the NHC report for Mexico or Texas.

Fernand’s flooding rains caused one direct fatality: a man drowned in García, near Monterrey. The government of Nuevo León reported an estimated $383 million (USD) in damage, primarily attributed to flooding. The most severely affected area was northeastern Mexico, particularly Monterrey and surrounding parts of Nuevo León.

The storm’s formation was not well anticipated far in advance: the system was first given a low (under 40%) chance of development about 78 hours before genesis and only reached a high probability in the last 6–18 hours before formation. NHC track and intensity forecast errors for Fernand were somewhat larger than recent averages at short lead times, and the cyclone’s rapid short-lived development contributed to the forecast challenges.