Fay (2014)

A compact low that formed from a mid- to upper-level disturbance became a subtropical storm about 535 nmi south of Bermuda on 10 October 2014, transitioned to a tropical storm early on 11 October, and moved northward toward Bermuda. Fay strengthened as it approached the island and reached hurricane strength on 12 October, then turned east-northeast and accelerated into the north-central Atlantic. The cyclone weakened to a tropical storm later on 12 October and opened into a trough by 13 October, with the remnant frontal cyclone dissipating over the northeastern Atlantic by 15 October.

Fay made landfall on Bermuda around 0810 UTC (about 4:10 a.m. local time) on 12 October 2014. The estimated center passage was a little after 0800 UTC, and the western half of the island experienced the strongest winds as the circulation moved directly over the island.

The peak intensity is estimated at 70 kt (80 mph) 1‑minute sustained winds with a minimum central pressure near 983–984 mb, making Fay a Category 1 hurricane at its peak. Best-track positions list the peak at 70 kt and 983 mb at 1200 UTC 12 October, with the landfall pressure measured near 984–985 mb.

Measured storm surge and rainfall on Bermuda included a 1.78 ft (0.54 m) storm surge at the NOAA tide gauge in St. George. Rainfall reports include 1.87 in (47.5 mm) at the L.F. Wade International Airport (though that gauge was likely damaged during the storm) and unofficial reports up to about 3.7 in (94 mm) at the west end of the island. Several elevated sites recorded very strong winds: a 10‑minute wind of 53 kt (1‑min equivalent about 59 kt) at the Bermuda Airport, a 10‑minute 76‑kt measurement atop Commissioner’s Point (at ~46 m elevation, with a 1‑min equivalent near 74 kt), and a Weather Underground site in Smith’s Parish reporting a 70‑kt 1‑min wind at 42.6 m (about 62 kt when adjusted to 10 m).

Fay caused widespread wind damage across Bermuda: downed utility poles and trees, flooding of several major roads including Front Street in Hamilton, roof damage at the airport terminal, and many boats damaged or pushed ashore. About 27,000 customers lost power. Reported insured losses to one firm were preliminarily near $3.8 million; total island losses were likely higher. No fatalities were reported in the NHC report.

Noteworthy items: Fay was the first hurricane to make landfall on Bermuda since 1987. Its genesis was poorly forecast — the disturbance was placed in NHC outlooks only about 36 hours before formation and high chances of development were given only about 6 hours prior. Official track and intensity forecasts generally underestimated Fay’s westward motion and strengthening, producing larger than average errors at longer lead times.