Fay (2020)

Fay formed from a non-tropical low that moved off the North Carolina coast and became a tropical storm about 1800 UTC on 9 July 2020 near Cape Hatteras. It moved north-northeast roughly parallel to the U.S. Mid‑Atlantic coast, reached tropical-storm strength for about 30 hours, then weakened over New Jersey and became a remnant low over southeastern New York early on 11 July before being absorbed over southeastern Canada later that day.

The storm made landfall once in New Jersey near Atlantic City at about 2000 UTC (4:00 p.m. EDT) on 10 July 2020. At landfall Fay’s maximum sustained winds were estimated near 45 kt (about 50 mph) with a central pressure near 999 mb; it had been at its peak intensity earlier on 10 July while offshore.

Fay’s peak intensity was 50 kt (about 58 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 998 mb, which corresponds to a moderate tropical storm (below hurricane strength). Aircraft and surface measurements supported the 50‑kt peak that occurred from 1200 to 1800 UTC on 10 July while the center was offshore.

Storm surge and rain were greatest along the Delaware and New Jersey coasts and inland across the Mid‑Atlantic. The highest measured storm surge was 2.67 ft above normal at Lewes, Delaware; many gauges along the Mid‑Atlantic showed peak water levels around 1.0–1.3 ft above normal, with isolated inundation up to about 2 ft on the New Jersey coast. Rainfall totals of 3–6 inches fell across eastern Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, with the heaviest storm-related total 6.97 inches near Lewes, Delaware. A 9.60‑inch two‑day total was recorded at Wilkes‑Barre/Scranton, but much of that was likely associated with the mid‑latitude system that absorbed Fay. Pre‑genesis heavy rains of up to 12.96 inches were reported near St. Helena, South Carolina.

Media reports indicate two direct deaths (drownings while swimming in high surf during the storm), with four additional drownings reported afterward in lingering high surf (two in New Jersey and two in New York). Damage in the U.S. Mid‑Atlantic from winds, surge, and flooding was estimated by NOAA’s NCEI at about $220 million. Most impacts were minor coastal flooding, localized inundation, urban and stream flooding from the rainfall, and some wind damage and power outages across the Mid‑Atlantic and southern New England.

Notable aspects include Fay’s non‑tropical origin and short life as a tropical storm, and that forecasts and genesis probabilities were reasonably accurate: the NHC’s forecast track and intensity errors for Fay were smaller than recent 5‑year means and the first high genesis probability was issued about 24 hours before formation. Fay produced one reported EF‑0 tornado in Maine during its post‑tropical stage.