Erika (2009)

A tropical wave that left the west coast of Africa on 25 August developed into Tropical Storm Erika on 1 September 2009 about 250 nautical miles east of Guadeloupe. Erika moved generally westward across the eastern Caribbean from 1–4 September. It briefly strengthened after formation but remained a small, disorganized system with its strongest thunderstorms displaced east of its center. The storm weakened to a depression on 3 September and degenerated to a remnant low later that day, dissipating early on 4 September about 70 nautical miles south of the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico.

Erika crossed the Lesser Antilles, with the best-track noting a landfall on the east coast of Guadeloupe around 1830 UTC 2 September while at tropical storm strength (35 kt in the best track at that time). No other clear landfalls at tropical-storm strength were documented; the system passed south of St. Croix and moved into the eastern Caribbean before losing its tropical cyclone characteristics.

The peak intensity is estimated at 45 knots (about 52 mph) with a minimum central pressure near 1004 mb, recorded on 1–2 September. That peak corresponds to a moderate tropical storm (below hurricane strength). Aircraft and satellite data were used to determine the peak, though some higher instrument readings were discounted because they occurred in heavy rain or had data problems.

Storm surge reports were minimal in the islands. Rainfall totals were small in the monitored stations; for example, Antigua recorded a storm-total rainfall of 1.94 inches (49.2 mm). No sustained tropical-storm-force winds were reported at land weather stations; Antigua reported a peak 1‑minute sustained wind of 30 kt with a gust to 38 kt on 3 September. A few ship reports noted winds near tropical-storm force offshore.

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Erika. Forecasting agencies did predict the storm’s development well in advance, but many track and intensity models had unusually large errors for this storm, producing a northward bias and overestimating its future strengthening; official forecasts also over-predicted intensity though they never forecast hurricane strength.