Felix (2007)

A tropical wave that left the coast of Africa on 24 August organized into a tropical depression about 1200 UTC 31 August roughly 195 nautical miles east-southeast of Barbados. The system became Tropical Storm Felix near 0000 UTC 1 September, passed over Grenada that morning, and moved westward across the southern Caribbean. Felix strengthened to a hurricane on 2 September and underwent very rapid intensification, reaching major hurricane strength on 2–3 September before weakening briefly during an eyewall replacement. It re-intensified and moved west-northwest to make landfall in Central America, then weakened quickly over land and became a remnant low by early 5 September.

Felix made an earlier, smaller-impact landfall on Grenada around 0845 UTC 1 September as a tropical storm with about 45 kt (approximately 50 mph) sustained winds. The principal landfall occurred near Punta Gorda, Nicaragua at about 1200 UTC 4 September as an extremely powerful hurricane, estimated at about 140–150 kt (140–160 kt indicated by some aircraft measurements, best track uses 140 kt just before landfall).

The storm’s peak intensity is given as 150 kt (sustained) with a minimum central pressure of 929 mb recorded by an eye dropsonde at 0658 UTC 3 September. That peak placed Felix as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale for a period on 2–3 September and again just before the Nicaragua landfall on 4 September.

Storm surge and rainfall were variable. Coastal observations include a reported storm surge of about 3.34 ft at Point Saline International Airport (Grenada). Rainfall totals were generally modest along the fast-moving track, but heavier where Felix slowed over Central America: Omoa, Cortés, Honduras recorded 9.62 inches, La Ceiba, Honduras about 6.17 inches, and Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua reported 7.11 inches. Other inland locations in Nicaragua and Honduras reported several inches of rain (many locations 3–4 inches).

Media reports attribute about 130 deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras combined, with roughly the majority in Nicaragua, and about 70 people reported missing; the report does not provide a detailed split by country or a full breakdown of direct versus indirect fatalities. Major damage occurred near the Nicaragua landfall—especially along the coast north of Puerto Cabezas—where thousands of homes and other structures were reported destroyed by wind and surge, and additional inland flooding damaged communities in both Nicaragua and Honduras. Monetary damage estimates were not available in the report.

Noteworthy aspects include Felix’s exceptional rapid intensification—winds increased about 115 kt in 48 hours, one of the fastest on record in the Atlantic (only Hurricane Wilma, 2005, intensified faster over comparable periods)—and the storm’s very small wind field (hurricane-force winds extended no more than about 40 n mi from the center). Forecast track errors were smaller than long-term averages, but intensity forecasts substantially underpredicted the rapid strengthening, producing unusually large intensity forecast errors.