Ernesto (2012)

A tropical depression formed from a tropical wave on 1 August 2012 about 760 nautical miles east of the Windward Islands. The system moved quickly west to west-northwest across the Caribbean, became Tropical Storm Ernesto on 2 August, and fluctuated in strength while passing just north of Barbados and south of St. Lucia on 3 August. Ernesto slowed in the western Caribbean, rapidly strengthened on 7 August, turned westward, crossed the southern Yucatán and moved into the Bay of Campeche before making a final landfall in southern Mexico and dissipating over the high terrain on 10 August.

Ernesto made multiple landfalls in Mexico. It first crossed Cayo Norte in the Banco Chinchorro Islands around 0100 UTC 8 August, then made a second landfall near Majahual on the southern Yucatán Peninsula at about 0315 UTC 8 August at peak strength. After moving west across the peninsula and re-emerging into the Bay of Campeche, the center passed near Ciudad del Carmen about 0000 UTC 9 August and made a final landfall about 10 n mi northwest of Coatzacoalcos around 1615 UTC 9 August.

The storm’s maximum intensity was estimated at 85 knots (98 mph) with a minimum central pressure of about 973 millibars, making Ernesto a Category 2 hurricane at peak on 8 August near Majahual. Aircraft and surface pressure observations (including 979.4 mb at Banco Chinchorro and 975.0 mb near Buena Vista) supported the post-storm peak intensity estimate.

Storm surge and rainfall produced notable local impacts. An automated station on Banco Chinchorro recorded a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb as the center passed; coastal flooding was reported along the Bay of Campeche, including in Coatzacoalcos and Ciudad del Carmen. Rainfall and inland flooding from Ernesto’s remnants caused fresh-water flooding and landslides in Veracruz, Puebla, Oaxaca, and well inland in southern Mexico; Mexican officials reported widespread flooding in the Bay of Campeche coastal areas and 10,000 houses partially damaged by flooding in Veracruz. (Specific point rainfall totals were not listed in the available observations.)

Media reports attributed seven direct and five indirect deaths in Mexico to Ernesto. Direct deaths included three wind-related fatalities, three water-related drownings, and one lightning fatality; most direct fatalities occurred in Veracruz and Tabasco, while the indirect deaths in Guerrero were due to storm-related traffic accidents. Damage estimates reported by Mexican media totaled at least $174 million (USD), including about $76.4 million in agricultural losses; impacts included fallen trees, power outages (about 85,000 people in Majahual), damaged roads, evacuations of roughly 1,300 tourists, and landslides in mountainous areas.

Noteworthy details: Ernesto’s formation was faster than initially forecast, and long-range track forecasts early in its life had a northward bias that sometimes suggested a central Gulf of Mexico track that did not occur. Official NHC track errors were near recent averages while intensity forecasts generally performed well, though the post-storm analysis indicated slightly higher intensity at Yucatán landfall than forecast. Observations from PEMEX platforms and a storm chaser helped confirm re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche and the pressure readings used in the peak estimate.