Arthur (2008)

Arthur formed quickly from the remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Alma interacting with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean. Satellite and ship data indicate it became a tropical storm around 0000 UTC 31 May 2008 about 45 nautical miles east of Belize City. The system moved slowly west-northwest, reached its peak intensity that morning, made landfall in northeastern Belize the same day, weakened to a depression by 1200 UTC 1 June, and degenerated into a remnant low by about 1200 UTC 2 June while producing heavy rain as it moved into southern Mexico.

The single landfall occurred around 0900 UTC 31 May 2008 in northeastern Belize, roughly midway between Belize City and Chetumal, Mexico. At landfall the cyclone had maximum sustained winds of about 40 kt (approximately 46 mph) and a minimum central pressure near 1004 mb, classifying it as a tropical storm. The system continued to produce tropical-storm-force winds in rain bands northeast of the center for nearly a day after the center moved inland.

Arthur’s maximum recorded intensity was 40 knots (about 46 mph) with a minimum pressure of about 1004 millibars; it did not reach hurricane strength. Best-track data list 40 kt at 0600 UTC 31 May as the peak, and the post-analysis maximum was based on satellite and surface observations including QuikSCAT and nearby ship and buoy reports.

Storm surge and rainfall impacts were concentrated in Belize. Rainfall amounts in Belize were reported as high as about 15 inches in places (specific station totals were not available in the report). The TRMM satellite rainfall estimates show widespread heavy precipitation across Belize and parts of neighboring Central America. The report does not list specific measured storm-surge heights at named stations, but coastal and riverine flooding was severe in villages along the coast and next to rivers.

Arthur caused five direct fatalities, all in Belize, due to flooding. Damage in Belize was estimated at about $78 million (U.S.), with many bridges and roads washed out and 714 homes damaged. The hardest-hit areas were coastal villages and communities adjacent to rivers. Warnings were issued for all of Belize northward to Cabo Catoche, Mexico, and were discontinued by 1500 UTC 1 June.

Notable aspects include the rapid and somewhat unexpected development so close to land—the genesis was not well-forecast—and relatively higher-than-average short-term track errors for this small sample of forecasts. Intensity forecasts were generally close to observations, but the system spent most of its life over land where strengthening was unlikely.