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HURRICANE BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019

Barry continues to exhibit a wind shear pattern with the center exposed on the western edge of the convection. The eyewall remains open to the west due to 15-20 kt of westerly shear. Despite the shear, Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to 65 kt, and the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb. The initial motion is 315/5 kt.

Barry is forecast to turn northward overnight and make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Saturday. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, with the main difference being exactly where and when landfall occurs. The NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus models.

The hurricane has about 12-18 hours over water before it makes landfall. During this time, the sea surface temperatures are expected to be 28-29C, which would normally support intensification. However, the moderate westerly shear is expected to continue, which should limit strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast shows Barry reaching 75 kt before landfall, which is at the upper end of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over Louisiana and Arkansas.

The main hazard from Barry continues to be heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, with isolated amounts to 20 inches possible. This will likely result in dangerous, life-threatening flooding in these areas. Storm surge of 3-6 feet is expected along the Louisiana coast, particularly east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and into early next week.