Invest

Western Pacific Invest · WP962026

28.2°N, 162.1°E

Moving NNW at 12 mph

Max Winds

50 mph

Pressure

987 mb

Forecast Points

JMA Winds (10-min avg)

40.0 kt

JMA Pressure

994.0 hPa

JMA (10-min average): Typhoon No. 2615 · Chan-hom

Summary

Invest 96W is currently an invest with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is a large monsoon depression with extensive gale-force winds around the outside and a weak center, and it has only limited thunderstorms near the north and west sides of its broad low-level circulation. As of the latest report, the center was located about 1,266 nautical miles east-southeast of Misawa, Japan, moving north at around 10 mph. The strongest winds are spread well away from the center, though the radius of maximum winds has decreased over the past 12 hours. The environment is only marginally favorable for development, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center says formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast guidance suggests the system will slowly consolidate and transition into a warm-core tropical cyclone while tracking northwestward over the next few days.

Key messages

Invest 96W has 50 mph winds and is a large system with gale-force winds mainly around its outer areas rather than a tight center.
It is moving north at about 10 mph and is expected to track northwestward over the next few days.
A significant tropical cyclone could form within 12 to 24 hours as the system slowly consolidates.

Satellite Imagery (IR)

CIRA/RAMMB · 06 Aug 22:30 UTC

JTWC Warning 06 Aug 18:00 UTC

WTPN21 PGTW 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.0N 162.3E TO 35.5N 151.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 42 TO 48 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 28.2N 162.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
27.2N 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1266 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE 
WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO 
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL VORTEX 
ALSO EXTENDS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM 
WINDS REMAINS HIGH, ASSESSED TO BE AN AVERAGE OF 110 NM IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LLCC, BUT HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT 
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-25 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 C), AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT 
OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 42 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 987 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071930Z.//
NNNN

Products not available for West Pacific storms

NEXRAD radar — no radar coverage over the open West Pacific.
Storm-surge inundation — no public storm-surge model for this basin.
Wind-speed probabilities — JTWC does not publish them.
Watches and warnings — issued by local agencies (PAGASA, JMA, CWA), not JTWC.
Reconnaissance aircraft — no routine aircraft reconnaissance in the West Pacific.
Rapid-intensification and shear diagnostics — SHIPS-based guidance is not published for this basin.

These are data-availability limits for the West Pacific basin, not omissions.

Source: U.S. Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), via the UCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project. JTWC data is in the public domain. · Updated 2026-08-06 19:59 UTC · JMA analysis: Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (10-minute average winds). Satellite imagery: CIRA/RAMMB.