Krovanh

Western Pacific Tropical Depression · WP222026

22.6°N, 132.9°E

Moving NW at 9 mph

Max Winds

35 mph

Pressure

994 mb

Forecast Points

JMA Winds (10-min avg)

35.0 kt

JMA Pressure

996.0 hPa

JMA (10-min average): Typhoon No. 2624 · Krovanh

Summary

Tropical Depression 22W (Krovanh) is currently a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It has been moving northwest, and the forecast keeps it tracking generally northwest toward the Ryukyu Islands over the next 36 hours before the steering winds weaken and its future motion becomes uncertain. As of the latest warning, Krovanh was located about 364 nautical miles southeast of Kadena AB and had been moving northwest at about 9 mph over the past six hours. Satellite analysis shows a mostly exposed, elongated low-level center with most of the persistent thunderstorms on the northwest side, and dry air wrapping into the system may continue to limit how well it can organize. Forecasts call for very gradual strengthening while the system stays broad and poorly organized, with Krovanh potentially reaching around 46 mph by about 60 hours. After that, increasing wind shear is expected to lead to gradual weakening. From roughly 39 to 96 hours, the system is forecast to be nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Ryukyu Islands, and overall track confidence is low due to the weak and uncertain steering pattern.

Key messages

Krovanh is a tropical depression with 35 mph sustained winds and is moving northwest.
The system is forecast to track toward the Ryukyu Islands over the next 36 hours, then slow down with highly uncertain movement in a weak steering pattern.
Slow, gradual strengthening is possible through about 60 hours (to around 46 mph), followed by gradual weakening as wind shear increases.

Forecast intensity

JTWC forecast maximum sustained winds (mph) by hour.

Satellite Imagery (IR)

CIRA/RAMMB · 02 Sep 04:00 UTC

JTWC Warning #4 02 Sep 00:00 UTC

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 004    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 132.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 132.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 24.0N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 25.7N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 27.1N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 28.1N 128.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   60 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 28.5N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 28.3N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 27.9N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 26.8N 130.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 132.6E.
02SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
364 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 
994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Forecast Reasoning 02 Sep 03:00 UTC

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) 
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.6N 132.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD)
22W AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE LLCC STILL APPEARS TO BE
ELONGATED ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS AND HAS
SEPARATED ITSELF FROM THE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW TO THE
SOUTH.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAK PENETRATION INTO THE CORE,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONSOLIDATION. 012032Z GMI 37 AND 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THE POOR STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION
AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON T2.0 AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND IN LIGHT OF
THE SEPARATION OF THE LLCC FROM ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WEAK DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 020010Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 020010Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 012034Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 020000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W HAS STARTED ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES AND COMES UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TOWARD THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. AFTER
TAU 36, THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENED BY A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAVE 22W IN AN UNCERTAIN AND WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RYUKU ISLANDS BETWEEN TAU
39-96, DURING WHICH TIME THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS MOTION. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT AS A RESULT OF ITS TIME IN THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE SLOW
CONSOLIDATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED, RESULTING IN VERY GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 60. AFTER TAU 60, INCREASING VWS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
TAU 36 THERE IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND BROAD NATURE OF THE VORTEX. EVENTUALLY, NEARLY ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TURN AROUND AND GAIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK,
BUT WITH NO CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO SYNTHESIZE A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FROM THE
VARIED CONFIDENCE BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ABOUT THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING, HOWEVER, THE
RATE OF CONSOLIDATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM STILL LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

Products not available for West Pacific storms

NEXRAD radar — no radar coverage over the open West Pacific.
Storm-surge inundation — no public storm-surge model for this basin.
Wind-speed probabilities — JTWC does not publish them.
Watches and warnings — issued by local agencies (PAGASA, JMA, CWA), not JTWC.
Reconnaissance aircraft — no routine aircraft reconnaissance in the West Pacific.
Rapid-intensification and shear diagnostics — SHIPS-based guidance is not published for this basin.

These are data-availability limits for the West Pacific basin, not omissions.

Source: U.S. Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), via the UCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project. JTWC data is in the public domain. · Updated 2026-09-02 03:07 UTC · JMA analysis: Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (10-minute average winds). Satellite imagery: CIRA/RAMMB.