Bavi

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 028    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 135.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 135.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 17.1N 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 17.7N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.8N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 20.1N 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   60 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 21.9N 125.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.8N 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 27.8N 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 31.7N 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 134.7E.
07JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 927 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS 
AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8N 135.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 716 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 09W (BAVI) WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT HAS ALSO BECOME A BIT
MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THE CDO, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED BD-ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, HAVE
OSCILLATED BETWEEN PERIODS OF WARMING AND COOLING OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS AS WELL. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 071941Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING A
PRONOUNCED EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER
OF THE EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF
T6.5-7.0 AND THE SPREAD OF CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE REMAINED AT 29-30 C AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE BEING OFFSET BY THE PERSISTENT 20-25 KT
VWS, MAKING THE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A SEPARATE STR CENTERED
OVER OKINAWA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 141 KTS AT 071800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 071800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 118 KTS AT 071800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 127 KTS AT 071628Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 129 KTS AT 071800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MAINTAINED A NEARLY DUE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AT A SLOWER 12 KT RATE OF
ADVANCE. THE STR NOW CENTERED OVER KYUSHU THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING
EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. UNDER THIS STEERING REGIME, STY 09W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN TURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST
NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN WITH A CPA TO TAIPEI AT 110500Z BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA. NOTABLY, 09W IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN AN
EXPANSIVE (AROUND 500 NM DIAMETER) STORM FORCE WIND FIELD UNTIL IT
MAKES LANDFALL. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 130 KTS
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF GRADUAL WEAKENING
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH TAU 72. MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
ISLAND OF TAIWAN AND MAKES ITS EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN
CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURNING NORTHWESTWARD SCENARIO, WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU 72 AS 09W APPROACHES TAIWAN.
WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE AND AI SOLUTIONS MAKING UP THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120 AS THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 220 NM AFTER LANDFALL. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF DECAY SHIPS, WHICH SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING, THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOLLOWED BY RAPID DECAY
AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

• NEXRAD radar — no radar coverage over the open West Pacific.
• Storm-surge inundation — no public storm-surge model for this basin.
• Wind-speed probabilities — JTWC does not publish them.
• Watches and warnings — issued by local agencies (PAGASA, JMA, CWA), not JTWC.
• Reconnaissance aircraft — no routine aircraft reconnaissance in the West Pacific.
• Rapid-intensification and shear diagnostics — SHIPS-based guidance is not published for this basin.