2-day Outlook — Eastern Pacific

Areas of disturbed weather NHC is watching for tropical development over the next 48 hours. Issued 4 times daily.

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Plain-language outlook

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Elida is moving west about 560 miles off Mexico and is expected to stay out to sea over the next 48 hours, so it shouldn’t affect land. Nearby Tropical Depression Five-E, several hundred miles southwest of Mexico, could become a tropical storm in the next day or two and bring heavy rain and possible localized flooding to parts of southwestern Mexico.

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Eastern Pacific

NHC text discussion

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing very little 
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days 
while the system remains nearly stationary. The disturbance is 
expected to move into less favorable environmental conditions later 
this week, likely ending its chances for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands and several hundred miles south-southeast of Johnston Island 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, 
and the system could become a tropical depression later this week 
while it moves slowly northwestward toward the vicinity of Johnston 
Island.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end 
of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well 
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs