7-day Outlook — Eastern Pacific
Plain-language outlook
A large area of disorganized showers and storms well south of southwestern Mexico has a good chance of slowly organizing and could become a tropical depression early next week as it moves west-northwest to northwest. Short-term chances are low, but the 7-day chance of formation is high (about 80%).
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Eastern Pacific
NHC text discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Central Pacific: An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, well offshore of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Gibbs