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Hurricane Risk for Montego Bay, JM

No tropical storms currently threaten northwestern Jamaica. The next one could form quickly though — get alerts before they make the news.

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On this page
  1. By the numbers
  2. Most recent hurricane
  3. Strongest ever
  4. Closest approach
  5. When hurricanes hit
  6. Recent notable storms
  7. Preparedness

Since 1851, 121 hurricanes and tropical storms have passed within 150 miles of Montego Bay. Here's what you should know.

Local note: The north coast is sheltered from south-track storms but fully exposed to anything moving west across the Cayman Trough.

By the numbers

Total storms
121
since 1851
Major (Cat 3+)
53
at closest approach
Hurricanes (Cat 1+)
91
all categories
County
Jamaica

Most recent hurricane

Melissa (2025)

Passed within 20 miles of Montego Bay on October 28, 2025. Peak intensity: Cat 5 (190 mph).

Strongest hurricane ever to pass nearby

Melissa (2025)

Reached Cat 5 (190 mph) at its peak. Passed within 20 miles of Montego Bay.

Closest approach ever

Unnamed (1912)

Passed just 7.1 miles from Montego Bay on November 20, 1912.

When hurricanes hit Montego Bay

Distribution across the calendar year, based on every storm in the 150-mile radius since 1851:

Jan
0
Feb
0
Mar
0
Apr
0
May
3
Jun
4
Jul
9
Aug
37
Sep
29
Oct
27
Nov
11
Dec
1

Peak months are August through October, when the Atlantic season is most active. June, July, and November are secondary risk months.

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Recent notable storms (last 20 years)

Hurricanes (Cat 1+) within 200 miles in the last 20 years — these are the ones Montego Bay residents likely remember:

Storm Year Peak Closest Date
Melissa 2025 Cat 5 20 mi Oct 28, 2025
Beryl 2024 Cat 5 54 mi Jul 04, 2024
Rafael 2024 Cat 3 72 mi Nov 05, 2024
Debby 2024 Cat 1 149 mi Aug 02, 2024
Grace 2021 Cat 3 35 mi Aug 17, 2021
Elsa 2021 Cat 1 60 mi Jul 04, 2021
Ida 2021 Cat 4 129 mi Aug 26, 2021
Laura 2020 Cat 4 119 mi Aug 24, 2020
Nana 2020 Cat 1 127 mi Sep 01, 2020
Delta 2020 Cat 4 144 mi Oct 05, 2020
Earl 2016 Cat 1 153 mi Aug 02, 2016
Sandy 2012 Cat 3 94 mi Oct 24, 2012
Karl 2010 Cat 3 156 mi Sep 13, 2010
Tomas 2010 Cat 2 177 mi Nov 05, 2010
Gustav 2008 Cat 4 35 mi Aug 29, 2008
Paloma 2008 Cat 4 133 mi Nov 08, 2008
Ike 2008 Cat 4 181 mi Sep 08, 2008
Dean 2007 Cat 5 68 mi Aug 20, 2007
Noel 2007 Cat 1 164 mi Oct 30, 2007
Ernesto 2006 Cat 1 181 mi Aug 28, 2006

Preparedness

  1. Know your zone. Montego Bay sits in northwestern Jamaica — look up your evacuation zone here.
  2. Get alerts early. Sign up below — we'll notify you when storms first form in the basin, not just when they're at your doorstep.
  3. Have 3+ days of supplies. Water (1 gal/person/day), non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, cash.
  4. Have an evacuation plan. Know where you'll go, how you'll get there, what you'll bring.
  5. Follow official orders. If your zone is told to evacuate, leave. Don't wait.